تحلیل تاب آوری مسکونی محلات ناکارآمد در برابر زلزله (نمونه موردی : منطقه 7 تهران)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری
2 پژوهشگر فرا دکتری دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
چکیده
رشد جمعیت با شهرنشینی سریع و بدون برنامه ریزی، گسترش فزاینده مخاطرات طبیعی و انسانی، پیامدی جزء ناپایداری در پهنه شهرها بویژه پهنه های فرسوده و ناکارآمد مسکونی ندارد. لذا امروزه در شهرها، توجه به افزایش پایداری فیزیکی مسکن مبتنی بر اصول و نظریه تاب آوری از اهمیت زیادی برخودار است. هدف پژوهش تحلیل و کاربرد تاب آوری کالبدی مسکن در بافت های فرسوده شهری در محلات منطقه 7 با 13 محله با وسعت1970383 مترمربع و همچنین نحوه تاثیر آن برای پایدارسازی منابع شهری است. پژوهش حاضر با نوع کاربردی ـ توسعه ای و با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و ارزیابی تاب آوری کالبدی مسکن محدوده مورد مطالعه با داده های حاصل از مطالعات اسنادی موجود در سازمان مسکن و شهرسازی ، مرکز آمار وشهرداری پرداخته است. داده ها در غالب شاخص های اسکلت ساختمان، عمر بنا، نفوذپذیری،تعداد طبقات، جنس مصالح، کیفیت ابنیه و دانه بندی قطعات در بافت مسکونی استخراج و دسته بندی شده اند. جهت ارزیابی و کشف الگو از ابزار رگرسیون ، از روش خودهمبستگی فضایی برای وزن دهی لایه ها، تحلیل توزیع فضایی از روش خودهمبستگی موران محلی (Anselin local Morans) در نرم افزار GIS و Geoda در سطوح محلات منطقه 7 استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصله بیانگر این است علیرغم قرارگیری مساحت بیشتری از محدوده در بازه تاب آوری متوسط تا غیر تاب آور از لحاظ تفکیک، طیف تاب آوری در محلات با روند تغییرات و تاثیرات متفاوتی روبرو است که پراکنش جغرافیایی آن در قسمت شرق منطقه نمود بیشتری دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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