Volume 23, Issue 1 (2019)                   MJSP 2019, 23(1): 1-24 | Back to browse issues page

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mohammadi sabet N, j karami J, sharifikia M. Explanation of uncertainties in environmental hazard zonation using Dempster-Shafer theory. Case Study: Landslide hazard in southern Chalous . MJSP 2019; 23 (1) :1-24
URL: http://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article-21-20577-en.html
Explanation of uncertainties in environmental hazard zonation using Dempster-Shafer theory. Case Study: Landslide hazard in southern Chalous
Nasrin Mohammadi sabet 1, Jalal J karami2 , Mohammad Sharifikia3
1- Tarbiat Modares University , nm1781368@gmail.com
2- Tarbiat Modares University
3- Tarbiat modares
Abstract:   (8336 Views)
Today, a wide range of spatial analysis models are used in environmental risk zoning. Some models, such as hierarchical and fuzzy analyzes, despite the inclusion of uncertainty in the input variables, are unable to explain quantitatively the output uncertainty. In this study, the aim of evaluating the capabilities of the Dempster-Schaeffer algorithm is to explain the uncertainty in the outcomes for landslide hazard zonation in the south of Chalus. Therefore, after field studies and review of similar studies, a map of 10 factors was provided in the GIS environment and was introduced as input data along with a map of the distribution of landslides to the model. Landslide hazard zonation was performed by integrating different weights in the Dempster-Sheffer model and in order to evaluate the output of the model, a logistic regression model was used; the performance of the two models was based on the output results of the models and using two indicators of the density ratio (Dr) And the sum of utility (Qs) was evaluated and verified. The results of Dr showed that both models had good performance in identifying high-risk classes compared to low risk classes. Based on the Qs index, the Dempster-Schafer model with QS = 98/2 was good compared to Logistic regression model with QS = 91/66 has a better relative utility. Therefore, the D-S model is more successful in identifying risk classes (finiteness) and consequently hazard classes (uncertainty) in the region.
Keywords: Uncertainty models in environmental hazards, landslide, Dempster-Schaffer model, logistic regression model, South Chalous.
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Article Type: Original Research | Subject: Earth-Surface Processes
Received: 2018/05/7 | Accepted: 2019/04/28 | Published: 2019/06/15
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