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mohammadi hamidi S, Nazmfar H, Ahad R, Yazdani M H. Futurology of the Economic Drivers of Urmia Lake Water Level Fluctuations on the Spatial Unbalanced. MJSP 2020; 24 (4) :69-97
URL: http://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article-21-42733-en.html

Introduction
Industry and economy have a vital part in achievement in of the development of a country. Researchers argue that these developments will seriously damage the global and regional economy and slow the growth of the economy in the future years. In this context, among the factors that have caused rapid and profound changes in the settlement system of the Urmia Lake basin area over the past few decades, economic effects have been one of the important ones. These developments have been able to reduce the integration and effectiveness of the elements of the residential system and the connections between them and cause spatial imbalances. As a result, the establishment of a dysfunctional and fragmented settlement system has become a major issue in many countries in recent decades, in the form of serious economic threats and political instabilitydue to following exogenous development pattern, it will have the greatest impact on the formation and method of settlement and establishment of the existing residential system in Iran; its product has been the formation of an inefficient and fragmented settlement system. In recent decades, this issue has become important for many countries in the form of serious economic threats and political instability of the countries. The main focus of this study is to investigate the economic drivers caused by the decrease in the water level of Lake Urmia in spatial imbalances with a futuristic view in the settlements of the catchment area of this lake.)[r11] present research, various methods are used to extract and identify key components and future constructive drivers. Key components and drivers are a set of factors and variables that have a significant impact on other components inside and outside the system under study and play a significant role in building the future of the system.
Methodology
The present study is a structural analysis and in terms of the nature of the data, it is both qualitative and quantitative, and its method of data collection, is documentary and survey. The statistical population of this study includes experts and development planners of East and West Azerbaijan provinces who were selected by snowball sampling. The questionnaires were completed only by those who are were involved in the development and planning of the province. The analysis of this study using the matrix method was a cross-sectional effect based on dolphin. Also, to analyze the data and information and display them in an understandable way, the method of estimating the kernel density in the software environment of the geographic information system has been used.
Results and Discussion
The findings show the effects of declining economic value on agricultural land, increasing government spending in various sectors, declining production and changing the type of some agricultural products, weakening the tourism sector, creating class gaps (inequalities), smuggling development, and false employment. Changing the cultivation pattern is not strategic due to its high dependence on other outcomes and most of the other resulted variables (. In contrast, the decline in employment in agriculture, rising unemployment and declining incomes in agriculture and animal husbandry were among the most important and strategic consequences of declining lake water levels. Reducing employment in the agricultural sector in rural areas alone is one of the most influential economic consequences in the region, which has been recognized as an important factor in creating spatial imbalances in the study area. In order to examine this consequence more accurately, using the spatial coefficient method and estimating the kernel density, the status of this consequence on the habitat habitats in the study basin was investigated. The results of the spatial coefficient method showed that this region is the exporter of service and industrial labor force, while in the agricultural sector it has less labor force.
Conclusion
Achieving equality and balance in various economic, social and environmental dimensions is one of the characteristics of a country's development. Meanwhile, economic equality is another basic dimension of development. In the present study, an attempt was made to investigate the causes of this inequality and imbalance in the catchment area of ​​Lake Urmia. Structural analysis was used to achieve a forward-looking perspective. In this regard, various groups of experts completed the questionnaire as the panel of experts. Initially, the most important economic implications of declining lake water levels over the next ten years were identified. The results were then analyzed in Micmac analysis software, and the economic drivers of declining lake water levels were identified and analyzed. Finally, proposals were made to prevent the problems caused by unemployment, and consequently, the migration of the inhabitants of these areas. Encouraging small businesses and job creation in the region, as well as providing them with long-term facilities and improving the business environment as one of the most important and effective components for economic development and empowering the private sector, should be considered as solutions This is because providing infrastructure and infrastructure, strengthening enterprises and economic mechanisms, supporting production, paying attention to science and technology parks and growth centers, taking steps to facilitate business, improving the volume of industrial production and boosting production ، اIt will play the most important role in the development of the regional economy. But achieving this is essential to keeping the lake afloat in balance.
Keywords: Spatial imbalance, economic drivers, structural analysis, Mick Mac, Urmia Lake

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