Structural Analysis of Influential and Responsive Drivers in the Sistan Social–Ecological System: Root Cause Analysis of the Crisis and Natural Resource Monitoring

This research was conducted with the aim of identifying the key drivers affecting the sustainability of Sistan’s ecological resources, including soil, water, and vegetation. 67 drivers with Delphi method and systems thinking were identified and then analyzed using MICMAC to determine their impact and influence within the framework of direct, indirect, probable direct, and probable indirect relationships. The results showed that the drivers of self-interest, discouragement or indifference of managers and decision-makers, corruption and managerial inefficiency, and the lack of commitment of parliamentarians and local councils to the Sistan conservation and development vision programs have the greatest influence and the lowest dependency, and were therefore identified as the key drivers. Moreover, drivers such as reduced biodiversity and ecosystem services, aesthetic decline in natural and artificial landscapes, environmental and human health, failure to implement vegetation restoration plans, degradation of afforestation projects and off-road traffic inside the Hamoon Wetland, tourism and the local economy, lack of participation of people and non-governmental organizations in implementing desertification-control programs, public distrust of officials, migration, and increased poverty were identified as response drivers with the highest dependency and lowest influence. The examination of driver displacement showed that the system has structural stability based on the influence and dependence relationships between the variables. The findings indicate that key drivers are concentrated in managerial, political, and governance domains, while response drivers lie within economic, social, cultural, and ecological dimensions. Accordingly, it can be inferred that improving response drivers depends on enhancing conditions of managerial, political, and governance spheres.