Drivers and consequences of urban and rural shrinkage in Bostan Abad city

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
N. Noroozi 1
H. Dadashpoor 2
A. Shamsoddini 3
1 Msc in Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor in Urban & Regional Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor in Remote Sensing, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
The phenomenon of urban shrinkage, recognized as a pervasive global challenge, induces significant alterations in demographic patterns. The primary indicator of urban shrinkage manifests as a decline in the urban population, which is influenced by a myriad of economic, social, environmental, and political factors and catalysts. Shrinkage can transpire at various scales, encompassing national, regional, urban, and rural dimensions, and its implications profoundly affect both the tangible and intangible frameworks of the settlement in question. Presently, in light of the economic and demographic dilemmas confronting Iran, the mitigation of the population growth rate has emerged as a salient concern. Nonetheless, the decline in population is markedly more pronounced in certain locales; such that the population growth rate progressively trends negative, resulting in a diminished capacity of those areas to retain existing residents and attract prospective migrants. Empirical research indicates that Bostan-Abad city has consistently experienced population decline and contraction during the years 1375 to 1395. The current study employed a quantitative approach, analyzing statistical data and land use modifications within the city over these years through the utilization of object-oriented processing techniques. Subsequently, the interrelations among the examined variables were assessed employing the random forest machine learning algorithm. According to the research findings, the contraction of Bostanabad city is intricately linked to rural depopulation, with its rural populace consistently diminishing. This predicament, correlated with an uptick in out-migration from the city and an aging demographic, has precipitated a decline in agricultural activity within the city; if unchecked, it poses the risk of inflicting more severe detriments upon this urban area.

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The Journal of Spatial Planning and Geomatics
Volume 28, Issue 3
December 2024
Pages 1-21