Analysis of long-term monthly changes in lethal temperatures above 50°C in the Northern Hemisphere

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
Y. ghavidel 1
M. Karzani 1
M. Farajzadeh 2
1 Tarbiat Modares University
2 Tarbiat Moares University
10.2022/hsmsp.27.2.5
Abstract
This paper intends to identify and statistically analyze monthly changes in the lethal temperature above 50 degrees Celsius (TU50c) in the Northern Hemisphere. For this purpose, the reanalyzed data related to the maximum temperature up to two meters of the earth's surface was used during the period of 73 years from 1948 to 2020, and after adjustment, analyzed on a monthly basis. Descriptive statistics analysis methods, linear trend analysis and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test are used for evaluating the frequency of such occurrences. During the 73-year study period, 9553 days with minimum temperature of 50 degrees Celsius were identified and their coordinates were extracted. Examining the daily frequency of TU50c in the Northern Hemisphere showed that the months of May and January have had the highest frequency, respectively. Also, the highest increasing trend in the number of fatal temperatures was observed in the months of March, April, July and August. In terms of location, the region that could record the highest frequency and the most intense TU50c was related to Africa especially Sudan, West Asia (between Iraq, Southwest of Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) and India in the Indian subcontinent. Moreover, these temperatures are not rare in America either; but TU50c has not been reported in Europe and East Asia. The highest and most intense temperatures occurred in the fifth decade, between 1988 and 1998.

Keywords

Subjects

- Aksu, H. (2021). Nonstationary analysis of the extreme temperatures in Turkey. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 95, 101238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101238.
- Domonkos, P., Kyselý , J., Piotrowicz, K., Petrovic, P., & Likso, T. (2003). Variability of extreme temperature events in south–central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large-scale circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 987-1010. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.929
- Ghavidel, Y. (2015). An Analysis of Super Heat wave Climatic Hazard Occurred in 2010 Summer in Khuzestan Province. Geography and Planning, 19(51), 289-309 (In Persian).
- Gershunov, A., Cayan, D.R., & Iacobellis, S.F. (2009). The Great 2006 Heat Wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an Increasing Trend, Journal of Climate, 22(23), 6181-6203. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/22/23/2009jcli2465.1.xml
- Ghavidel, Y., & Ahmadi, M. (2015). Statistical analysis and temporal trend of annual maximum temperatures of Abadan in Southwestern of Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 8(10), 8219–8228. DOI: 10.1007/s12517-014-1760-9
- Guo, X., Huang, J., Luo, Y., Zhao, Z., & Xu, Y. (2017). Projection of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets using 12 CMIP5 models. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 128, 507–522. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1718-1
- Habeeb, D., Vargo, J., Stone, B. (2015). Rising heat wave trends in large US cities. Natural Hazards, 76, 1651–1665. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1563-z
- Hu, K., Huang, G., Qu, X., & Huang, R. (2012). The impact of Indian Ocean variability on high temperature extremes across the southern Yangtze River valley in late summer. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 29, 91–100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-0209-2
- Hunt, B.G. (2006). A Climatology of Heat Waves from a Multimillennial Simulation. Journal of Climate, 20, 3802-3821.
- Karzani, M., Ghavidel, Y., & Farajzadeh, M. (2022). Temporal Changes in Lethal Temperatures Above 50 °C in the Northern Hemisphere. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 179, 3377–3390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-022-03109-6
- Klaus, D., Wyszyński, P., Dethloff, K., Przybylak, R., & Rinke, A. (2018). Evaluation of 20CR reanalysis data and model results based on historical (1930-1940) observations from Franz Josef Land. Polish Polar Research, 36(2), 225–254. https://doi.org/10.24425/118747
- Kostopoulou, E., Giannakopoulos, C., Hatzaki, M., Karali, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Lelieveld, L., & Lange M.A. (2014). Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(6),1565-77. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1565-2014.
- Liu, Z., Yang, M., Wan, G., & Wang, X. (2017). The Spatial and Temporal Variation of Temperature in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau during 1971–2015. Atmosphere, 8(12), 214.
- Loew, A., Holmes, T., de Jeu, R. (2009). The European heat wave 2003: Early indicators from multisensoral microwave remote sensing. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 114(D5). Doi: 10.1029/2008JD010533.
- Marshall, A. G., Hudson, D., Wheeler, M. C., Alves, O., Hendon, H. H., Pook, M. J., & Risbey, J. S. (2014). Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2. Climate dynamics, 43, 1915-1937. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2016-1
- Meehl, G.A., & Tebaldi, C. (2004). More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305(5686), 994-997. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704
- Mildrexler, D. J., Zhao, M., & Running, S. W. (2011). Satellite finds highest land skin temperatures on Earth. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(7), 855-860. Doi: 10.1175/2011BAMS3067.1
- Perkins, S. E., & Alexander, L. V. (2013). On the measurement of heat waves. Journal of climate, 26(13), 4500-4517. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1
- Perkins, S. E., Alexander, L. V., & Nairn, J. R. (2012). Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(20). Doi:10.1029/2012GL053361.
- Rohini, P., Rajeevan, M., & Srivastava, A. K. (2016). On the variability and increasing trends of heat waves over India. Scientific reports, 6(1), 1-9.
- Russo, S., Dosio, A., Graversen, R. G., Sillmann, J., Carrao, H., Dunbar, M. B., ... & Vogt, J. V. (2014). Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119(22), 12-500. Doi: 10.1002/2014JD022098.
- Saleem, F., Zeng, X., Hina, S., & Omer, A. (2021). Regional changes in extreme temperature records over Pakistan and their relation to Pacific variability. Atmospheric Research, 250, 105407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105407
- Salman, S. A., Shahid, S., Ismail, T., Chung, E. S., & Al-Abadi, A. M. (2017). Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. Atmospheric research, 198, 97-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.08.011
- Sanderson, M. G., Economou, T., Salmon, K. H., & Jones, S. E. (2017). Historical trends and variability in heat waves in the United Kingdom. Atmosphere, 8(10), 191.
- Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Giese, B. S., McColl, C., ... & Wyszyński, P. (2019). Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145(724), 2876-2908. Doi:10.1002/qj.3598
- Song, X., Zhang, Z., Chen, Y., Wang, P., Xiang, M., Shi, P., & Tao, F. (2014). Spatiotemporal changes of global extreme temperature events (ETEs) since 1981 and the meteorological causes. Natural hazards, 70, 975-994. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0856-y
- Tavakol, A., Rahmani, V., & Harrington Jr, J. (2020). Evaluation of hot temperature extremes and heat waves in the Mississippi River Basin. Atmospheric Research, 239, 104907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104907
- Tomczyk, A. M., Półrolniczak, M., & Bednorz, E. (2017). Circulation conditions’ effect on the occurrence of heat waves in western and southwestern Europe. Atmosphere, 8(2), 31. Doi: 10.3390/atmos8020031
- Vincent, L. A., & Mekis, É. (2006). Changes in Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices for Canada over the Twentieth Century. ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN, 44(2), 177-193. https://doi.org/10.3137/ao.440205.
- Xie, W., Zhou, B., You, Q., Zhang, Y., & Ullah, S. (2020). Observed changes in heat waves with different severities in China during 1961–2015. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 141, 1529-1540. Doi: 10.1007/S00704-020-03285-2.
- Zaitchik, B. F., Macalady, A. K., Bonneau, L. R., & Smith, R. B. (2006). Europe's 2003 heat wave: a satellite view of impacts and land–atmosphere feedbacks. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 26(6), 743-769. Doi: 10.1002/joc.1280.
- Zerafati, H., Ghavidel, Y., & Farajzadeh, M. (2021). Historical reconstruction and statistical survey on long-term temporal changes in temperatures above 50° C in West Asia. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08611-0
- Zhang, R., Chen, Z. Y., Ou, C. Q., & Zhuang, Y. (2017). Trends of heat waves and cold spells over 1951–2015 in Guangzhou, China. Atmosphere, 8(2), 37. Doi: 10.3390/ATMOS8020037.
The Journal of Spatial Planning and Geomatics
Volume 27, Issue 2
October 2023
Pages 106-124