Forecasting the status of the environment using SMIC and MORPHOL models in south Khorasan province

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
F. Jahanishakib 1
M. Erfani 2
1 Faculty Member, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
2 Faculty Member, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
10.2022/hsmsp.26.3.1
Abstract
South Khorasan Province has gone through rapid industrialization and urbanization processes in the last decades and is under increasing pressure from various environmental challenges such as water scarcity and intensification of pollution and ecosystem degradation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop scenarios for the future state of the environment of South Khorasan province using LIPSOR, the French school of scenario building, and by the application of simple interaction matrix models and morphological analysis to systematically help the environmental management orientations. For this purpose, key variables were first introduced as the main drivers or actors shaping the future. SMIC PROB-EXPERT software package was used to explain the initial scenarios of the future environmental situation of the province. Then a set of scenarios including the most probable scenarios were identified using MORPHOL software. Also, due to a large number of scenarios, the framework of general scenarios was used to describe different axes and conditions. The results of the study of the five main drivers in the SMIC model led to the extraction of 10 initial scenarios. Then, morphological analysis with the MORPHOL model with three political, institutional-executive, and cultural domains produced 3125 possible and probable scenarios, each of which shows the probability of D5/D6/D1/D33/D29 propulsion, respectively. Finally, the analysis of 50 possible scenarios showed that scenario 11111 is the most probable scenario (276.41%), and scenarios 11112, 11113, and 21111 are with probabilities of 184.28, 122.85, and 115.17, respectively, which are five of its constituent variables mainly indicating the probability of occurrence of low (1) to moderate (2 and 3) in the scenarios. In general, the future environmental situation of South Khorasan province is in the situation of the third quarter called lack of discretion in the environment. To change the future and move towards a better future, paying attention to each of the influential variables will be the way forward and can be directed towards a quarter of the framework with at least one flourishing axis.

Keywords

Subjects

بهشتی، محمدباقر، زالی، نادر، (1390)، "شناسایی عوامل کلیدی توسعه منطقه‌ ای با رویکرد برنامه ‌ریزی بر پایه سناریو: مطالعه موردی استان آذربایجان شرقی"، برنامه‌ریزی و آمایش فضا، دوره 15 (1)، 41-63.
جهانی‌شکیب.، فاطمه، عرفانی ملیحه و الهام یوسفی، (1399). "تبیین ساختاری پیشران‌های مؤثر در مدیریت محیط زیست استان خراسان جنوبی"، برنامه‌ریزی و آمایش فضا. 24 (1)، 127-109.
رهنما، محمد.، شاکرمی، کیان و عباسی، حامد. (1397). "شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران های موثر بر توسعه منطقه ای استان البرز با رویکرد برنامه ریزی سناریو مبنا". آمایش سرزمین، 10 (1)، 139-166.
رسولی، محمد.، احدنژاد روشتی، محسن، مشکینی، ابوالفضل، و حیدری، تقی. (1401). تحلیل بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده شهری با تاکید بر نقش و عملکرد ذینفعان محلی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری (مطالعه موردی: شهر زنجان). فصلنامه علمی - پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، 13 (48)، 68-51.
زالی، نادر، پورسهراب، آناهید، (1396)، "آینده‌نگاری توسعه منطقه‌ای با رویکرد تلفیقی سناریونویسی و مدل تحلیلی SWOT مطالعه موردی: استان گیلان". برنامه‌ریزی و آمایش فضا، 21 (3)، ۱۸۹-۲۲۰.
زالی، نادر، زمانی‌پور، مسعود. (1395). "ارائه و پیاده‌سازی یک مدل جدید برای سناریوسازی در برنامه‌ریزی‌ منطقه‌ای مورد شناسی: استان مازندران"، جغرافیا و آمایش شهری منطقه‌ای، 6 (18)، 1-24.
طرح آمایش استان خراسان جنوبی، (1396). سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی استان خراسان جنوبی. بازیابی 1399.
طرح ارزشگذاری اقتصادی منابع پایه استان خراسان جنوبی با رویکرد تهیه نقشه خدمات اکوسیستمی، (1401)، سازمان حفاظت محیط زیست.
References
Alcamo, J. (2008). Environmental futures: the practice of environmental scenario analysis (Vol. 2). Elsevier.
Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). "A review of scenario planning". Futures, 46(Summer), 23–40. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
Behesti, M., Zali N, (2011) "Identification of regional development key factors with scenario-based planning approach: Case study of East Azarbaijan Province". J Spat Sci. 15 (1), 41-63. (in Persian).
Bishop, P., Hines, A., Collins, T., Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2011). techniques The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. http://doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Heijden, K. Van Der. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, 37, 795–812. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
Chermack, T., Lynham, S., & Ruona, W. (2001). A review of scenario planning literature. Futures Research Quarterly, 17(2).
COATES, J. F. P., & GODET, M. (1994). From anticipation to action: a handbook of strategic prospective. Unesco Publishing.
Durance, P., & Godet, M. (2010). "Technological Forecasting & Social Change Scenario building : Uses and abuses". Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77(9), 1488–1492. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.007
Elmsalmi, M., Hachicha, W., & Aljuaid, A. M. (2021). "Modeling Sustainable Risks Mitigation Strategies Using a Morphological Analysis-Based Approach: A Real Case Study". Sustainability, 13(21), 12210.
Economic valuation of the basic resources of South Khorasan province with the approach of preparing the ecosystem services, (2022), Environmental Protection Organization. (in Persian).
Fierro, G. G. (2015). "Strategic prospective methodology to explore sustainable futures". Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, 11(11), 606-614.
Giaoutzi, M., & Sapio, B. (2013). Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies. (M. Giaoutzi & B. Sapio, Eds.). Boston, MA: Springer US. http://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7
Godet, M. (2000a). "How to be rigorous with scenario planning". Foresight, 2(1), 5–9.
Godet, M. (2000b). The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 3–22. http://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00120-1
Godet, M. (2012). "To predict or to build the future?" Futurist, 46(3), 46–49.
Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). Strategic Foresight: for coporate and regional development. Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development.
Hatami, A., Asadzadeh, H., & Jafari, F. (2022). Urban Smart Sustainability in Tehran: LIPSOR Approach for Transformation. In Soils in Urban Ecosystem (pp. 257-283). Springer, Singapore.
Jahanishakib, F., Erfani, M., & Yusefi Rubiat, E. (2020). "Explanation of Effective Drivers in Environmental Management of South Khorasan Province Using Structural AnalysisExplanation of Effective Drivers in Environmental Management of South Khorasan Province Using Structural Analysis". The Journal of Spatial Planning, 24(1), 109-127. (in Persian).
Land use Planning of South Khorasan Province, (2019). Management and Planning Organization of South Khorasan Province. Recovery 2020. (in Persian).
Medina, E., Arce, R. de, Mahía, R., de Arce, R., & Mahía, R. (2015). "Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events". Futures, 71, 36–56. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.06.005
Rahnama, M., Shakarami, K., Abbasi, H. (2018). "Identifying and Analyzing the Influence of Driving Forces on the Regional Development of Alborz Province with the Scenario-Based Planning Approach". Town and Country Planning, 10(1), 139-166. doi: 10.22059/jtcp.2018.254262.669854. (in Persian).
Raskin, P., Monks, F., Ribeiro, T., Vuuren, V., Zurek, M., Carpenter, S. R., … Zurek, M. B. (2005). Chapter 2: Global scenarios in historical perspective. In Ecosystems and Human well-being: scenarios, volume 2 (pp. 35–44). Washington, DC: Island Press. Retrieved from citeulike-article-id:2981581
Rasoli, M., Ahdnejad Rushti, M., Meshkini, A., & Heydari, T. (2020). Regeneration Analysis of Urban Decay Textures with Emphasis on the Role and Function of Local Stakeholders with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Zanjan City). (in Persian).
Ravetz, J., Carter, J., Green, N., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Piorr, A., Skirbekk, V., & Boitier, B. (2008). PLUREL Scenario Framework – a guide exploring the guide for for exploring the future of the peri-urban, (December), 1–62.
Ritchey, T. (2006a). Modeling multi-hazard disaster reduction strategies with computer-aided morphological analysis. In Reprint from the Proceedings of the 3rd International ISCRAM Conference, Newark, NJ (pp. 9–11).
Ritchey, T. (2006b). Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 57(7), 792–801.
Ritchey, T., Stenström, M., & Eriksson, H. (2002). Using morphological analysis for evaluating preparedness for accidents involving hazardous materials. Swedish Morphological Society, 15.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25–40. http://doi.org/doi.org.proxy2.lib.umanitoba.ca/10.1
Schweizer, V. J., & Kriegler, E. (2012). Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 044011(4), 44011. http://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044011
Vivanco-Aranda, M., Mojica, F. J., & Martínez-Cordero, F. J. (2011). Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(3), 481–497. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.05.005
Zali, N., & Zamanipour, M. (2016). "Presenting And Implementing A New Model For Scenario Building In Regional Plannings Case Study: Mazandaran Province". Geography And Territorial Spatial Arrangement, 6(18), 1-23. https://www.sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=523457 (in Persian).
The Journal of Spatial Planning and Geomatics
Volume 26, Issue 3
November 2022
Pages 1-22