The Properties of Tropical Storm Hazards in Southeast Costs of Iran

Author
-
Abstract
The occurrenceof extreme climate events, including tropical

storms, annually leaves irreparable damage in areas under their control. Understanding

these events and the knowledge of the time of their occurrence can be useful in

the management of emergencies caused by them. The aim of this research is spatiotemporal

reconstruction of tropical storms affecting the southeast coasts of Iran. The

data used in this study include reanalysis data the National Center for

Environmental Prediction )NCEP) with

spatial resolution of 2° to 2° from 1871 to 2012 and the

ECMWF dataset with spatial resolution 1°. In terms of temporal frequency, the

results show that in total 30 tropical storms affected southern coast of Iran,

directly or indirectly, during 1871-2015. The highest monthly frequencies belong

to June with 21 events and July with 7 occurrences. In terms of spatial

frequency, the genesis and ultimate develop of all the detected storms was the

Arabian Sea and the latitudes of approximately 15° N. Most occurrences of storm,

which was in June, followed the Southeast-Northwest track.

Keywords

Subjects


Abbasi, E., Reconstructison of temporal – Spatial of the tropical storms affecting the southeast coasts of Iran. Ph.D. Thesis. Tarbiat Modares University, 2015. [In Persian]
Blount, C., Fritz, H. M. & AL-Harthy, A. H. M., Coastal vulnerability assessment based on historic tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change. Springer, 2010.
Emanuel, K. A., The theory of hurricanes. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, 23 179-196, 1991.
Emanuel, K., Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436 686-688, 2005.
Frank, J., The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Gulf Coast Libraries and Their Disaster Planning, 2011.
Ghavidel, Y., Abbasi, E. & Farajzadeh, M., Analysis of the effect of Tropical Cyclone Phet on the occurrence of heavy rainfall and floods in Chabahar, Iran. Weather, 70 348-352, 2015.
Gulev, S., Zolina, O. & Grigoriev, S., Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Climate Dynamics, 17 795-809, 2001.
Hoarau, K. & Chalonge, L., A Climatology of Intense Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean Over the Past Three Decades (1980-2008). Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change. Springer. 2010.
King, D., Davidson, J. & Anderson-Berry, L., Disaster Mitigation and Societal Impacts. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation, 4 409, 2010.
Knutson, T. R., Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Indian Ocean Perspective. Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change. Springer, pp 47-49, 2010.
Le Marshall, J., Cloud and water vapour motion vectors in tropical cyclone track forecasting- a review. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 65 141-151, 1998.
Lin, C.-H., Hou, S.-K., Fuh-Yuan Shih, F. & Su, S., The Effect of Tropical Cyclones (Typhoons) on Emergency Department Visits. The Journal of emergency medicine, 45 372-379, 2013
Lin, N & K Emanuel, Grey swan tropical cyclones, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate 2777, 2015.
Luja, V. H. & Rodríguez-Estrella, R. 2010. Are tropical cyclones sources of natural selection? Observations on the abundance and behavior of frogs affected by extreme climatic events in the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. Journal of Arid Environments, 74 1345-1347.
Mcbride, J. L. & Holland, G. J. 1987. Tropical-cyclone forecasting: A worldwide summary of techniques and verification statistics. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 68 1230-1238.
Piontkovski, S. & Al-Azri, A. 2010. Influence of a tropical cyclone Gonu on phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll A) in the Arabian Sea. Indian Ocean tropical cyclones and climate change. Springer.
Roy, C. & Kovordányi, R. 2012. Tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques―A review. Atmospheric research, 104 40-69.
Rumpf, J., Weindl, H., Höppe, P., Rauch, E. & Schmidt, V. 2007. Stochastic modelling of tropical cyclone tracks. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 66 475-490.
Simmonds, I. & Keay, K. 2000. Variability of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behavior, 1958-97. Journal of Climate, 13 550-561.
Singh, O. 2010. Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean. Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change. Springer.
Wang, X., Wu, L., Ren, F., Wang, Y. & Li, W. 2008. Influences of tropical cyclones on China during 1965–2004. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 25 417-426.
Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A. & Chang, H.-R. 2005. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309 1844-1846.
Yan, Y., QI, Y. & Zhou, W. 2012. Variability of tropical cyclone occurrence date in the South China Sea and its relationship with SST warming. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 55 45-59