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Azari M, Fanni Z, Kozegarkaleji L, Tavakolinia J, Heydari A. Investigating the role of driving forces in land use changes and the spatial evolution of the city with a futurology approach ( Case study District 12 of Tehran). MJSP 2021; 25 (2) :121-144
URL: http://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article-21-46255-en.html

Abstract
Introduction Sustainable urban development is a multidimensional process and understanding this depends on a proper analysis of its often-contradictory complexities and dimensions. Therefore, this raises the need to pay attention to urban land use planning as one of the most important dimensions of sustainable development in urban space in order to be aware of the problems or development capabilities of the city spatial organization and its consequences and processes. The purpose of the present study is understanding of key driving forces based on futurology and scenario planning in land use changes and spatial developments in the 12th district of Tehran. To achieve this aim, the method of cross-impact analysis and scenario planning was used.
Methodology The present study in terms of practical purpose is a structural analysis and is based on the new method of futurology, which has been done with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Therefore, according to the nature of this research, collecting information in the descriptive part was through the study of library documents and in the analytical part was the five sessions of Delphi methods, forming cross-matrices and balanced by Micmac software, explaining the key driving forces, direct and indirect impact analysis of variables have been used along with scenario analysis approaches. Delphi method has been used to identify variables and indicators. Thus, first, using scientific and research articles, the factors affecting the spatial organization of land use in the 12th district of Tehran were collected, then a semi-structured questionnaire was prepared and distributed among experts (statistical society) in several stages in order to value those factors.
Results and Discussion the statistical society of the study includes 40 specialists in the field of urban planning and research elites who were selected through purposive non-random sampling. According to the results among 72 key factors, 8 vital drivers including consumerism in urban land use changes, land tax laws associated with land use changes, construction supervision, groups and social classes in urban land use changes, unstudied construction permits, participation and cooperation affecting urban land use developments, unproductive rentier economy, urban land commercialization are the most important key factors influencing land use planning and its developments in District 12th of Tehran. According to the findings, it can be seen that the best predictable situation in the framework of the approaches used in the present study is in the form of first and second scenarios (green situation) with a high degree of compatibility and reliability. In this situation, the indicators, while achieving the highest scores obtained from the matrices and software analysis, in the scenario diagram page, its elements have a more uniform and convergent distribution.
Conclusion By examining the cases and variables in this study, it can be concluded that the most influential factor in urban land use changes is consumerism. In recent decades, changing patterns of land consumption and commodification and the growth of capitalism has caused huge changes in land use in the 12th district of Tehran. Besides, the most desirable scenario is the proposed scenario number one, which is based on the success of urban policy in organizing land use, smart planning, spatial valuation, solving policy-legislative issues and the ideal situation, permits and sales density in the favorable situation.
Keywords Spatial developments, Urban land use planning, Scenario-based approach, Wizard Scenario, Tehran Metropolis