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abdolreza A, darvishi H, rahmani B, sarrafi M. Analysis of Factors Affecting the designing spatial development scenarios based on rural areas. MJSP 2019; 23 (3) :125-146
URL: http://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article-21-31750-en.html

 
Introduction
 Rural areas, as geographical space, have different dimensions that require decision making for spatial development. The spatial development as a rare resource (sarrafi,2015,16) requires strategic policy-making, planning and governance in the current and future situation, so the optimal allocation of the spatial development in territorial policymaking is important; (sarrafi,2015,16) the scope of territorial expansion Rural Settlements, Variety of Territorial Capabilities of Rural Areas in Different Dimensions of Natural-Ecological, Social, Economic and Spatial, Territorial Integration, sectoral and Organizational in Spatial Development (Kidd, 2007), Collaboration Between sectoral and Territorial (Dominic Acid, Ayurte Meijer, 2009), context orientation (Lewis Albert, 2006), integration and participation of development actors Disability (Paul Carynclas, Sophia Hatzpia Neely, 2010) and (F. Van Weillin (2012), Implementation and Policymaking systems, Attitudes toward Rural Development, Policy-Making Policies, Rural Development Laws and Regulations Framework (Dervishes & Partners , 1396) are among the key factors influencing the complexity of spatial organization and the design of spatial development scenarios in rural areas. In this regard, the present study seeks to answer the following questions:
1. What are the key driving forces and alternative futures of spatial development in rural areas?
2- Which scenarios are appropriate for spatial development in rural areas?
 
Methodology
The present research is applied in terms of targeted and analytical in nature. The method of data collection is based on the use of data collection techniques such as the questionnaire or Cross Impact Matiex, the techniques of reduction of data (factors) Delphi methodology and data analysis techniques are based on cross-impact analysis. According to the requirements of using expert-oriented method, 20 experts and managers of national levels were selected using stratified sampling method. Data analysis has been done using the scenario wizard software, so that after identifying strategic driving force and identifying the alternatives for each of them, in order to measure the effect of different situations on each other , A range of positive effects, ineffective and negative effects were identified. In this framework, based on three attributes, increasing, decreasing and decreasing, the effects of alternative futures were identified in a range of numbers between 3 and +3.
 
Results and Discussion
Identifying the main driveing for spatial development, mapping of the Cross Impact Matiex and compiling spatial development scenarios in rural areas based on strategic drivers are among the most important findings of the research.
 In this regard, research findings have shown that the driving forces of the "policy framework and implementation of the programs", " attitude towards the development of rural areas", "rural development laws and regulations", "oil revenues and rural development" " inconsistency of policymaking-based policy making", " decision-making system (policy-making, planning and goodgovernance) in rural development" has been identified as the main (strategic) driving in the design process of spatial development scenarios. In addition, the propulsion has 19 possible modes (alternative futures).
 Conclusion
Based on the results of the Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, 36 scenarios have been developed in scenario-driven software, in which 27 are weak scenarios, 6 are incompatible scenarios and 3 are highly adaptive scenarios. In the meantime, based on the criteria for assessing scenarios, three scenarios with a high degree of adaptability are possible. These scenarios include Zagros Spring, Spring Welcome, and Zagros Autumn, which are derived from a combination of a range of alternatives for six strategic driving forces strategic.