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The issue of the present research is inefficiency of traditional management methods of urban physical development and lack of futurology approach in Bokan spatial – physical planning. Nowadays, a new approach in urban management and planning is scenario planning. It was introduced for a better understanding of urban dynamics and to support the urban planning. In this regard, the scenario approach is adopted to investigate the Bokan spatial – physical development. The methodology used in this research is based on a descriptive-analytical approach. The main variables were collected by questionnaires in Delphi method, then the data were analyzed by Micmac tool and the scenarios were prepared in Schwartz technique. Afterwards, the final maps were illustrated by ArcGIS. The results of the study showed that the growth rate of spatial-physical development of Bokan city was %8.36 during 1966-2006. It also had linear growth along the main road of the city. Also the results showed that driving forces of spatial development in three levels (international or national, regional, local) are (1) Political strife and war in the region, (2) Drought and natural hazards, (3) Political subdivisions, and (4) Investment in a county level. Finally, Bokan city will face three spatial-physical development scenarios in the coming 20 years. The first scenario: compact growth within current boundaries of the city, the second scenario: linear development along the main road with low density, and the third scenario: sprawl and unplanned growth in all directions.

Keywords: Scenario Planning, Spatial - Physical Development, Bokan city

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