Assessment and Spatial Analysis of Socio-Economic Resilience in Tehran Province: A Systemic and Causal Approach

This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment and strategic planning framework for the social–economic resilience of counties in Tehran Province, using the DPSIR analytical framework. The main objective is to identify the current conditions, analyze regional inequalities, and propose practical strategies to enhance resilience across the province.
The research adopts a mixed quantitative–qualitative methodology and evaluates resilience across fourteen key dimensions, including health and social welfare, human capital, sustainable economy, infrastructure, environment, and food security. Data were collected from official sources, normalized using the Z-value method, and indicator weights were determined through the Analytic Hierarchy Process based on expert judgment.
The findings reveal significant spatial inequalities among the counties. Tehran County, with a resilience score of 10.45, along with Firuzkuh (7.39) and Rey (5.91), ranks at the top, while Pishva (0.44) and Varamin (0.71) are in the most disadvantaged positions. This distribution confirms a clear center–periphery pattern and a north–south divide in access to infrastructure, services, and human capital.
DPSIR analysis indicates that macro-level drivers such as population growth and economic policies have intensified pressures on employment, housing, and public services. These pressures have weakened resilience and led to adverse impacts, including declining quality of life and increasing social inequality.
Finally, the study emphasizes the need for region-specific strategic responses, including immediate investment in health and educational infrastructure in deprived counties, the development of sustainable and diversified employment in densely populated areas, and a focus on knowledge-based economy and sustainable tourism in more developed regions.