تدوین و تحلیل راهبردهای سازگاری کشاورزان با شرایط خشکسالی در استان اصفهان با استفاده از ماتریس TOWS

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل

نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران
2 استادیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی
3 دانشجوی دکتری توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران
4 استادیار دانشگاه پیام نور
5 کارشناس ارشد توسعه روستایی دانشگاه تهران
6 کارشناس اداره کل منابع طبیعی استان اصفهان
چکیده
در سال­های اخیر، ایران شاهد تغییرات اقلیمی است که بر بخش کشاورزی تأثیر زیادی گذاشته و به‌شکل خشکسالی نمایان شده است. یکی از استان­های کشور که با این پدیده مواجه بوده، استان اصفهان است. بنابراین، در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از ماتریس سوات (SWOT)، نقاط قوت، ضعف، فرصت‏ها و تهدیدهای پیش‌روی سازگاری کشاورزان کوچک‌مقیاس با شرایط خشکسالی در استان اصفهان شناسایی و برای بهبود مدیریت آن، راهبردهای مناسب تدوین و پیشنهاد داده می‌شود. جامعه‌ی آماری این پژوهش 110 کارشناس کشاورزی صاحب‌نظر در حوزه‌ی مدیریت خشکسالی در استان اصفهان بود که ازبین آن‌ها، 88 نفر به­عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار اصلی این تحقیق پرسشنامه است که روایی محتوایی آن ازطریق استادان توسعه‌ی کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران و پایایی آن به‌روش آلفای کرونباخ تأیید شد. در ابتدا، نقاط ضعف، قوت، فرصت و تهدید شناسایی شدند. در مرحله‌ی بعد، تحلیل فضای استراتژیک نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین وضعیت استقرارپذیری راهبردهای سازگاری با خشکسالی در ناحیه‌ی ST قرار می‏گیرد. با استفاده از ماتریس TOWS، راهبردهای سازگاری کشاورزی در شرایط خشکسالی نیز تدوین و معرفی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


- پیرمرادیان، نادر، شمس نیا، سید امیر، بوستانی، فردین، شاهرخ‌نیا، محمدعلی (1387). «ارزیابی دوره بازگشت Adger ,N. ; Agrawala, S. ; Mirza, M.M.Q. ; Conde, C.O. ; Brien, K. ; Pulhin, J, ; Pulwarty, R. ; Smit, B. & Takahashi,T, 2009, Assessment of adaptation practices, constraints and capacity. In: parry ml, canziani of, palutik of jp, vander linden pj, Hanson ce(eds) Climate Change2007; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Contribution of working group ii to the fourth assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge university press, Cambridge,pp: 717- 743.
Adger WN, Brown K, Nelson DR et al, 2011, Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change. Wiley Interdiscip Rev 2:757-766.
Alam, G. M., Alam, K., & Mushtaq, S, 2016, Influence of institutional access andsocial capital on adaptation decision: Empirical evidence from hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh.Ecological Economics,130, 243-251.
Alston, M., & Kent, J., 2006, The big dry: the link between rural masculinities and poor health outcomes for farming men.Journal of Sociology 44(2) 133-147.
Apata,T.G., Samuel,K.D.,& Adeoal, A.O, 2009, Analysis of climate change perception among arable food crop farmers in South Western Nigeria. Contributed paper presented at 23rd conference of International Association of Agricultural Economists, Beijing, China, 16-22 Agust 2009.
Badjeck, C., Allison, E.H., Halls, A.S., Dulvy, N.K., 2010, Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods. Mar. Policy 34, 375–383, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2009.08.007.
Bierkens, L.G. de Goncalves, J.G. de Mattos, and R. Lawford, 2013, toward global drought early warning capability: Expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for monitoring and forecasting, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 12:112-191.
Carswell, M., Fuglie, K., Ingram, C. Jan, S. and Kascak, C. (2001). Adoption of agricultural production practices: lessens learned from the U.S. department of agricultural are studies project. Agricultural economic report no. (AER 792), economic research service/USDA, PP 116.
Chenar, A.(2009)." Evaluation and monitoring of drought in East Azarbaijan, West and Ardebil provinces using AVHRR images". Tarbiat Modares University, Master Degree in Remote Sensing and GIS.Pp17.
Dadashpour, Hashem (2015). ”Measuring Resilience Capacities in Qazvin Urban Complex”, Crisis Management, No. 8, pp. 73-73
De Silva, M. M. G. T. and Kawasaki, A, 2018,Analysis Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Disaster Risk: A Case Study of Flood and Drought Impact in a Rural Sri Lankan Community, Ecological Economics, 152(3): 131-140.
Delphiyan, F; Yazdanpanah,M ; Foruzani, M; Yaqoubi, J.(2017).” Study of farmer's management behaviors during drought as preventive responses: Dehloran County”. Natural spatial analysis of natural hazards. Year 4, No. 4, pp. 79-92.
Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T., & Yesuf, M, 2009, Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 248-255.
Elasha,. Bo, Elhassan,. N.G, Ahmad, H. Zakieldin, s. (2005). Sustainable livelihood approach for assessing community resilience to climate change: case studies from sudan. Assessment of impacts and adaptions to climate change (AIACC) Working Paper No. 17. AIACC.
Fanni, Z; Khalilulallahi, H. A., Sajjadi, J., Fall Soleiman,M .(2016).” Analysis of the causes and consequences of drought in South Khorasan Province and Birjand”. Journal of Space Planning and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, 20 th period, No. 4, pp. 175-200.
Ghadami, Mustafa-Meshkini, Abolfazl; Pazhohan, Mussa and Pakdoust, Nooshin (2011). ”Determining Oil-Based Strategies Using the SWOT Method, IEA Analysis and QSPM Matrix Studied in Donegon City”, Journal of Regional Planning and Space Preparation, No. 3, pp. 52-39.
Ghambar Ali, R: Popzan, A.; Afsharzadeh, N.(2012). “Farmers' Viewpoints on Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies (Case Study: Kermanshah County)”. Rural Research, Third Year, No.3, Autumn 2012.
Griffiths, M.P. (2016). “Resilience and Community Social Organizations in Rural Myanmar”, Research Concultant Socail Policy& Poverty Research Group.
Grothmann, T., Patt, A., 2005, Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaption to climate change. Global Environ.Change 15(3),199-213.
Hussein, K,.& Nelson, J. (1998). Sustainable Livelihoods and Livelihood Diversification. IDS Working Paper Number 69. Brighton: Institude of Development Studies.
Ifeanyi-obi C.C., Etuk U.R. and Jike-wai O, 2012 , Climate Change, Effects and Adaptation Strategies; Implication for Agricultural Extension System in Nigeria. Greener Journal of Agricultural Sciences, ISSN: 2276-7770. Vol. 2 (2), pp. 053-060, March 2012.
Krejcie , R.V.,& Morgan, D.W.(1970)."Determining sample size for research activities". Educational and psychological measurement, 30(3), PP 607-610.
Keshavarz, M., Karami, E 2013, Institutional adaptation to drought: the case of Fars agricultural organization. Journal of Environmental Management, 127:61-68.
Keshavarz, M., Karami, E. and Vanclay, F, 2013, Social experience of drought in rural Iran. Land Use Policy, 30(1): 120-129.
Keshavarz, M., Karami, E., Kamgare-Haghighi, A. 2010, A typology of farmers’ drought management. Am.-Eurasian J. Agric. Environ. Sci. 7 (4), 415e426.
Khourani, Asadullah; Khajewe, Mohammad (2014). ”Simultaneous Investigation of Drought and Groundwater Level Trend”, Journal of Regional Planning and Space Preparation, Volume 18, Number 2, pp. 82-58.
Lashgarara, F.(2008). Surveying the Role of Information and Communication Tachnologies (ICTs) to Improve Food Security of Rural Households from the Viewpoint of Agricultural Extension Experts. Ph.D. Thesis, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Lotfi Naseb Esl, S; Khosroshahi, M; Saeedifar, Z; Dargahiyan, F. (2018).” Analysis of the trend of rainfall changes and evaluation of drought in Jazmourian watershed using stratified methods and optimal index”. Quarterly Journal of Rangeland and Desert Researches of Iran, Volume 25, Issue 4, Pages 923-943.
Mardy, T. Uddin, M. N. Sarker, M. A. Roy, D. and Dunn, E. S. 2018, Assessing Coping Strategies in Response to Drought: A Micro Level Study in the North-West Region of Bangladesh, Climate, 6(2): pp 1-18.
Mohammadi, Saadi, and Kohneposhi, Omid (2019). “An Analysis of Resilience Changes in Rural Settlements Transformed into Cities (Case Study: Berdeh rashe and Oraman Villages in Kurdistan Province) ”, Journal of Regional Planning and Space Preparation, Volume 23, Number 2, pp. 95- 51.
Molen, M.K. et al, 2011, Drought and Ecosystem Carbon Cycling, Agricaltural and Forest Meteorology, vol 151, issue 7, PP. 765- 773.
Molua E. Ouda, S. Sene, I, Seo S. N. and Dinar, A. 2008, Will African agriculture survive climate change? World Bank Economic Review 20(3) 67-88.
Mortimer, J.C., Laohavisit ,A., Macpherson, N., Webb, A., Brownlee, C., Battery, N.H. and Davies, j.M.,2008, Annexins: multifunctional components of growth and adaption. J.Exp.Bot.59:533-544.
Mubaya, C.P., Njuki, J., Mutsvangwa, E.P., Mugabe, F.T., Nanja, D., 2012, Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia. J. Environ. Manag. 102, 9–17,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.02.005.
Naderi, Ladan and Karami Dehkordi, Ismail (2019). “The Impact of Constructing Behesht Abad Dam on Livelihood Strategies of Local Communities”, Journal of Regional Planning and Space Preparation, Volume 23, Number 1, pp. 25-51.
Nielsen, J.O., and Reenberg, A. 2010, Cultural barriers to climate change adaption: A case study from Northen Burkina Faso. Global Environmental Change, 20:42-152.
Pirmoradian, N; Shamsnia, A; Bostani, F; Shahrokhnia, M.A.(2008).” Evaluation of drought return period using standard rainfall index in Fars province”. Journal of Modern Agricultural Science. Fourth Year, No. 13, Pages 21-7.
Pittman, J. Wittrock. V. Kulshreshtha, S. Wheaton, E, 2011, Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Saskatchewan: Case study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy, No. 284, Journal of Rural Studies, vol 27, issue 1, PP. 83- 94.
Pozzi, W., J. Sheffield, R. Stefanski, D. Cripe, R. Pulwarty, J.V. Vogt, R.R. Heim, M.J. Brewer, M. Svoboda, R. Westerhoff, A.I. van Dijk, B. Lloyd-Hughes, F. Pappenberger, M. Werner, E. Dutra, F. Wetterhall, W. Wagner, S. Schubert, K. Mo, M. Nicholson, L. Bettio, L. Nunez, R. van Beek, M. Prokopy L. S., Mase A. S. and Pretty-hill R, 2013, Assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation appraoches: useful to usable tools. Climate vulnerability. 2: 129-137.
Rahman, M. H. and Alam, K. 2016, Forest Dependent Indigenous Communities’ Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change through Local Knowledge in the Protected Area- A Bangladesh Case Study, Climate, 4(1): 1-25.
Rafieian, Mojtaba, Rezaei, Mohammad Reza, Asgari-Ali; Paryizkar, Akbar and Shayan, Siavash. (2011). ”Explaining the Concept of Resilience and Its Indexing in Community-Based Disaster Management”, Space Planning and Preparation, Volume 15, Number 4, pp. 19-41.
Reidsma, P. Ewert, F. 2008, Regional farm diversity can reduce vulnerability of food production to climate change. Ecol. Soc. 13 (1), 38 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art38/.
Risbey, J. Kandlikar, M. Dowlatabadi, H. Graetz, D, 1999, Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change.Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 4, 137e165.
Savari, M., Eskandari, H., & Avazpoor, L. (2019). Formulating strategies for sustainable exploitation of rangelands among local communities: A case study in Keram County. Rangeland, 13(2), 319-336.
Sadeka, Sumaiya (2013). ”Livelihood Vulnerability due to Disaster: Strategies for Building Disaster Resilient Livelihood”, nd International Conference on Agricultural, Environment and Biological Science (ICABS 2013) Dec. 17-18, 2013 Pattaya (Thailand), pp 95-101.
Serrat, o. (2008). The Sustainablae Livelihood Approach, Cornell University ILR School Digital Commons @ ILR.
Shakouri, A; Merseli, I. (2018).” Study of the Impact of Climate and Environmental Factors on Promoting Water Productivity in Rural Communities”. Journal of Space Planning and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Volume 23, Issue 2, pp. 47-73.
Singh, P.K., Nair, A., 2014, Livelihood vulnerability assessment to climate variability and change using fuzzy cognitive mapping approach. Clim. Change 127,475–491, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1275-0.
Sharafkhani Rahim, Dastgiri Saeed, Gharaaghaji Asl Rasool, Ghavamzadeh Saeed, Prevalence of The Household Food Insecurity and Its Influencing Factors: A Cross-Sectional Study (Khoy City-Qaresoo-2009), The Journal Of Urmia University Of Medical Scinces June-July 2011 , Volume 22 , Number 2; Page(S) 123 To 128 .
Tanner, T., et all. (2015). ”Livelihood resilience in the face of Climate Change”, Nature Climate 5, PP 23-26.
Tavakoli, Jafar; Almasi, Hadi; Qochi, P. (2015).” Investigation and Analysis of Drought Adjustment Strategies in Kermanshah Province”. Rural Research Quarterly. Volume 7, Number 1, Pages 217-241.
Tiffen, M,. Mortimore, M., Gichuki, F., (1994). More People, Less Erosion: Environmental Recovery in Kenya. Wiley, Chichester.
Vellayati,S. (2010).” Investigation of Water Crisis in Khuzestan Province”. Journal of Space Planning and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Volume 10, Number 1, Pages 231-234.
Vignola, R. Koellner, T. Scholz, R.W. McDaniels, T.L. 2010, ”Decision-making by farmers regarding ecosystem services: factors affecting soil conservation efforts in Costa Rica”. Land Use Policy 27, 1132e1142.
Wilson, Brenda (2009). ”Economic Diversification and Prospects for Sustainable Rural Livelihood in a Dryland Agrarian Village: A Case Study in Bijapur District Karnataka, India, A” .Thesis Sunmitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement For the degree of master of natural resources management, University of Manitoba Winnpeg, Manitoba.
World Bank .2008, World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. The World Bank, Washington, DC, Pp 124.
Xenarios, S. Nemes, A. Sarker, G. W. and Sekhar, N. U. 2016,Assessing vulnerability to climate change: Are communities in flood-prone areas in Bangladesh more vulnerable than those in drought-prone areas are? Water Resources and Rural Development, 7(2): 1- 19.
Yazdanpanah, M., Forouzani, M and Zobeidi, T. 2015, A typology of Iranian farmer perceptions of climate change: Application of the Qmethodology. A typology of Iranian farmer perceptions of climate change: Application of the Q- methodology. Proceedings of 31st Q Conference. Università Politecnica delle Marche (PP.121-123). ANCONA. ITALY.