دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 4 2020 12 21 Application of MODIS Optical depth Data in Estimation of PM10 (Case Study: Tehran) کاربرد داده‌های ضخامت نوری سنجنده مادیس در برآورد غلظت ذرات معلق (مطالعه موردی: شهر تهران( 1 28 14675 FA سمیه رفعتی استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه سیدجمال الدین اسدآبادی مجتبی رفعتی الاشتی دانش آموخته دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات Journal Article Introduction Particulate matter is any liquid or solid component (except pure water) that is dispersed in the Earth's atmosphere and is microscopic or sub-microscopic but larger than the molecular size. These particles play an important role in the Earth's climate. Suspended particles are created by various natural or anthropogenic processes and are among the deadliest types of air pollution, especially smaller particles less than 10 micrometers in diameter. Since the number of pollution station is very low, Satellite measurements have been widely used to estimate particulate matters (PMs) on the ground and their effects on human health. Methodology In this research, we tried to estimate PM10 using the regression model based on the Aerosols optical depth. Because the AOD value recorded by satellite sensors is affected by the weather conditions, to increase the accuracy of the PM10 estimation, meteorological parameters were also used in the AOD to PM10 conversion model. The used meteorological parameters include surface wind speed, surface temperature, relative humidity, visibility, and planetary boundary layer height. Since the data used were extracted from four different sources with different temporal and spatial resolution, it is necessary to apply a method for integration and synchronization in space and time. To generate AOD and PM10 data from the Aqua satellite, pollution stations were mapped onto satellite images and AOD values for the nearest neighbor pixels as well as values for a 3 by 3 window were extracted. So, two pairs of AOD and PM10 were formed, one with the nearest neighbor values and the other with the weighted average AOD values in a 3 by 3 window. Because the PM10 values were more closely related to the AOD values than the nearest neighbor, the pair of the weighted average was excluded from the calculations. There were extracted 100 samples in warm season (June, July, August and September) for model development (Shokoufa station data) and 65 samples for validation (Cheshmeh and Atisaz station data) and 140 samples in cold season (November, December, February and March) for model development, and 50 samples for validation. In the last step, the accuracy of the model was evaluated using indices such as coefficient of determination, mean error deviation (Bias), and mean square error (RMSE). Results and Discussion The results showed that AOD and PM10 have a better relationship with each other in the warm season than in the cold season. Only two variables of AOD and wind speed were included as independent variables in the best model presented for the warm season; both of which have a direct relationship with PM10, that is, with increasing of both variables the value of PM10 increases. The results showed that the regression model of warm season can only predict 16% of the PM10 variations correctly, which is not a satisfactory result. In the multivariate cold season regression model, only the visibility remained, and other variables that had no significant effect on model improvement were excluded from the regression model. Multivariate correlation coefficient of this model was estimated to be 0.59. Therefore, the cold season regression model, at best can predict 35% of the PM10 variations correctly. By deleting the visibility variable, it was attempted to measure the impact of other variables such as AOD on PM10 estimation. In this model, the boundary layer height, AOD and temperature variables were retained. The boundary layer height variable has a negative relationship and the other two variables have a positive relationship with PM10. The maximum effect of temperature on PM10 is justified by the increase in boundary layer and the relationship of these two dependent variables which decreases PM10 density, but since this role of temperature element is represented by the same boundary layer height variable, what remains is the secondary role. Temperature is in the PM10 particle production. However, the latter model is weaker than the previous model and its multivariate correlation coefficient is 0.45 and accounts for 20% of the PM10 variations. In the evaluation of the model in the warm season, the root mean square error at the Cheshmeh station was 31.76 µg / m3 and at the Atisaz station was 33.56 µg / m3. In the cold season, the root mean square error was estimated to be 47.10 µg / m3 at the Cheshmeh station and 49.81 µg / m3 at the Atisaz station, respectively. However, using the model with independent variables AOD, boundary layer height and temperature, the root mean square error was estimated to be 38.42 μg / m3 at the Cheshmeh station and 39.11 μg / m3 at the Atisaz station. The former shows a decrease of approximately 10 micrograms per cubic meter. Therefore, although the latter model with independent variables of boundary layer height, AOD and temperature had less multivariate correlation coefficients and determination coefficients than the model with independent observational variables in cold season, it yielded better results based on evaluation of the model for different locations and days from modeling location and days. Conclusion Generally, based on the results, it can be stated that regression models of warm and cold seasons are statistically acceptable at a confidence level of 99%. Therefore, the amount of PM10 fluctuations that is justifiable by the model is not accidental, although the modifications justified by models are low. The calculated errors in the evaluation section showed that the proposed models are not very accurate. It was also found that in the warm season, the wind speed can improve the results of the regression model of the relationship between AOD and PM10, and in the cold season, the variables of the boundary layer height and temperature in the regression model are statistically acceptable and improve the results of the model. چکیده در این پژوهش سعی شد با کاربرد مدل رگرسیون و بر‌اساس متغیرهای ضخامت نوری هواویزها و پارامترهای هواشناسی، میزان ذرات معلق برآورد و دقت آن ارزیابی شود. برای این منظور داده‌های غلظت ذرات معلق کوچک‌تر از 10 میکرومتر، داده‌های دما، رطوبت نسبی، سرعت باد، دید افقی و ابرناکی، ارتفاع لایه مرزی، ضخامت نوری هواویزها حاصل الگوریتم‌های ادغامی دیپ‌بلو و دارک‌تارگت 550/0 نانومتر به‌کار گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد میزان نوسانات ذرات معلق که توسط مدل قابل توجیه است تصادفی نیست (در سطح اطمینان 99درصد)، هر‌چند که تغییرات توجیه‌شده توسط مدل‌ها کم (16درصد در فصل گرم و 20درصد در فصل سرد) است و خطاهای محاسبه‌شده در بخش ارزیابی روشن نمود که مدل‌های ارائه شده، دقت زیادی ندارند. همچنین مشخص شد در فصل گرم متغیر سرعت باد می‌تواند نتایج حاصل از مدل رگرسیون رابطۀ ضخامت نوری هواویزها و غلظت ذرات معلق کوچک‌تر از 10 میکرومتر را بهبود ببخشد و در فصل سرد نیز وجود متغیرهای ارتفاع لایۀ مرزی و دما در مدل رگرسیون به‌لحاظ آماری قابل قبول است و باعث بهبود نتایج مدل می‌شود. واژه‌های کلیدی: ذرات معلق، ضخامت نوری هواویزها، مدل رگرسیون، پارامترهای هواشناسی، تهران.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14675_f7eabb16f5527507fc1236f156c5b816.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 4 2020 12 21 Evaluation and comparison of fractal and fuzzy quantitative methods efficiency in analysis of northwest Zagros tectonic situation ارزیابی و مقایسه کارایی روش‌های کمی فرکتال و فازی در تحلیل وضعیت تکتونیکی زاگرس شمال غرب 29 67 14676 FA ابوالقاسم گورابی دانشگاه تهران سید محمد زمانزاده دانشگاه تهران مجتبی یمانی دانشگاه تهران پریسا پیرانی دانشگاه تهران Journal Article Introduction In order to tectonic analysis northwestern Zagros, we have used fractal geometry against classic geometry and fuzzy logic instead of Aristotelian classic logic to evaluate natural landscapes with non-integer dimension and the complex nature of tectonic processes. The fractal dimension (FD) has been applied to determine anomaly or normality of surface rupture (faults) pattern in association with drainage network that can show the maturity of structures. In other hand, uncertainty of fuzzy logic has been applied to specify the potential of tectonic activity by using morphotectonic factors. At the end, we have compared results of these two methods with surface epicenters of earthquakes. Methodology To calculate the FD of faults and drainage network using box-counting, the area was divided to 6 boxes that contain main fault trends horizontally and vertically. In fractal method each box is covered by several network (grid) that their side length (quantity of Size) is decreased at every grid level. Then the relation between reciprocal of side length and boxes containing linear feature (quantity of Number) was drawn Logarithmically as a linear regression that shows FD. In fuzzy model, six main effective factors were determined and 12 layers were produced base on their importance in tectonic analysis. The membership degree of these layers’ effective parts by fuzzy functions were determined and then they were overlaid by fuzzy operators like gamma with different powers. Results and Discussion Calculating number-size quantity using box-counting method for faults and drainage network shows both partial and overall FD changes. As partial changes are close, yjey indicate the existence of the self-similarity components. Based on partial FD, there are three communities: back ground with FD larger than slope of linear regression, threshold community with repeating component, and anomaly community with FD value more than three. Based on overall FD, development of faults and drainage network have not entered to chaos phase. The comparison of mean value of fuzzy zoning with different gamma powers for each box indicates that 0.7 power of gamma has the most correlation with overall FD of boxes. Conclusion Areas of high value of FD for faults and low value for drainage network are more tectonically active. Here the box labeled A which represent western parts of Kermanshah in folded Zagros, has the highest FD value of faults (1.32) and lower FD value of drainage network (1.432). Epicenter evidences of earthquakes for example 7.3 magnitude earthquake of Ezgeleh, confirm the FD results; whereas, the box labeled E near Dezful Embayment shows the lowest FD value of faults (1.07) and highest FD value of drainage network (1/470). Overlaying fractal boxes (A to F) with fuzzy exports (gamma 0.7) are in line with these results and represent more potential of tectonic activity for northwestern parts of area (box A). Keywords: Tectonic, Northwestern Zagros, Fractal, Fuzzy.Introduction In order to tectonic analysis northwestern Zagros, we have used fractal geometry against classic geometry and fuzzy logic instead of Aristotelian classic logic to evaluate natural landscapes with non-integer dimension and the complex nature of tectonic processes. The fractal dimension (FD) has been applied to determine anomaly or normality of surface rupture (faults) pattern in association with drainage network that can show the maturity of structures. In other hand, uncertainty of fuzzy logic has been applied to specify the potential of tectonic activity by using morphotectonic factors. At the end, we have compared results of these two methods with surface epicenters of earthquakes. Methodology To calculate the FD of faults and drainage network using box-counting, the area was divided to 6 boxes that contain main fault trends horizontally and vertically. In fractal method each box is covered by several network (grid) that their side length (quantity of Size) is decreased at every grid level. Then the relation between reciprocal of side length and boxes containing linear feature (quantity of Number) was drawn Logarithmically as a linear regression that shows FD. In fuzzy model, six main effective factors were determined and 12 layers were produced base on their importance in tectonic analysis. The membership degree of these layers’ effective parts by fuzzy functions were determined and then they were overlaid by fuzzy operators like gamma with different powers. Results and Discussion Calculating number-size quantity using box-counting method for faults and drainage network shows both partial and overall FD changes. As partial changes are close, yjey indicate the existence of the self-similarity components. Based on partial FD, there are three communities: back ground with FD larger than slope of linear regression, threshold community with repeating component, and anomaly community with FD value more than three. Based on overall FD, development of faults and drainage network have not entered to chaos phase. The comparison of mean value of fuzzy zoning with different gamma powers for each box indicates that 0.7 power of gamma has the most correlation with overall FD of boxes. Conclusion Areas of high value of FD for faults and low value for drainage network are more tectonically active. Here the box labeled A which represent western parts of Kermanshah in folded Zagros, has the highest FD value of faults (1.32) and lower FD value of drainage network (1.432). Epicenter evidences of earthquakes for example 7.3 magnitude earthquake of Ezgeleh, confirm the FD results; whereas, the box labeled E near Dezful Embayment shows the lowest FD value of faults (1.07) and highest FD value of drainage network (1/470). Overlaying fractal boxes (A to F) with fuzzy exports (gamma 0.7) are in line with these results and represent more potential of tectonic activity for northwestern parts of area (box A). Keywords: Tectonic, Northwestern Zagros, Fractal, Fuzzy. چکیده ماهیت پیچیده فرایندهای زمین‌ساختی عامل ایجاد توپوگرافی و همچنین ابعاد مناظر طبیعی زمین را نمی‌توان با ساختارهای کلاسیک، مانند هندسه اقلیدسی یا منطق ارسطویی، ارزیابی نمود. برای این منظور، تحلیل فرکتالی آبراهه‌ها و شکستگی‌ها با استفاده از روش شمارش جعبه‌ای برای تعیین بلوغ ساختاری زاگرس شمال‌غرب انجام گرفت. همچنین با کمک معیارهای مرتبط با مورفوتکتونیک، پتانسیل فعالیت تکتونیکی منطقه با روش عدم قطعیت فازی مشخص و نتایج این دو روش با کانون‌های سطحی زلزله مقایسه شدند. مناطق دارای بعد فرکتالی بالای گسل و پایین زهکشی فعالیت تکتونیکی بیشتری دارند. طبق این تحقیق، محدودۀ A یعنی غرب کرمانشاه، دارای بالاترین بُعد فرکتالی (32/1) گسل و بُعد فرکتالی کمتر برای شبکۀ زهکشی (432/1) است و شواهد لرزه‌ای از‌جمله زلزلۀ اخیر کرمانشاه با 3/7 ریشتر نیز پویا بودن آن را تأیید می‌کند. محدودۀ E که رو به فروافتادگی دزفول است، کمترین بُعد فرکتالی گسل (07/1) و بیشترین بُعد فرکتالی شبکۀ زهکشی (470/1) را دارا است. با این حال گسل‌های مدفون نقش مهمی در تولید زلزله در شمال این محدوده دارند. هم‌پوشانی مربع‌های فرکتالی با گاماهای مختلف در مدل فازی تا حد زیادی تأیید‌کنندۀ نتایج بود و محدودۀ A در این مدل نیز بالاترین پتانسیل فعالیت تکتونیکی را نشان می‌‌دهد. واژه‌های کلیدی: تکتونیک، زاگرس شمال‌غرب، فرکتال، فازی.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14676_8eb0a23b70975a5e167147f4b0a881b6.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 4 2020 12 21 Futurology of the Economic Drivers of Urmia Lake Water Level Fluctuations on the Spatial Unbalanced شناسایی و تحلیل پیشرانهای اقتصادی ناشی از نوسانات سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه درعدم تعادلهای فضایی 69 97 14677 FA سمیه محمدی حمیدی دانشجوی دکترا جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران حسین نظم فر . استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری ، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران احد رضائیان پژوهشگر دوره پست دکتری رشته آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، ایران محمد حسن یزدانی دانشیارگروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری ، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران Journal Article Introduction Industry and economy have a vital part in achievement in of the development of a country. Researchers argue that these developments will seriously damage the global and regional economy and slow the growth of the economy in the future years. In this context, among the factors that have caused rapid and profound changes in the settlement system of the Urmia Lake basin area over the past few decades, economic effects have been one of the important ones. These developments have been able to reduce the integration and effectiveness of the elements of the residential system and the connections between them and cause spatial imbalances. As a result, the establishment of a dysfunctional and fragmented settlement system has become a major issue in many countries in recent decades, in the form of serious economic threats and political instabilitydue to following exogenous development pattern, it will have the greatest impact on the formation and method of settlement and establishment of the existing residential system in Iran; its product has been the formation of an inefficient and fragmented settlement system. In recent decades, this issue has become important for many countries in the form of serious economic threats and political instability of the countries. The main focus of this study is to investigate the economic drivers caused by the decrease in the water level of Lake Urmia in spatial imbalances with a futuristic view in the settlements of the catchment area of this lake.)[r11] present research, various methods are used to extract and identify key components and future constructive drivers. Key components and drivers are a set of factors and variables that have a significant impact on other components inside and outside the system under study and play a significant role in building the future of the system. Methodology The present study is a structural analysis and in terms of the nature of the data, it is both qualitative and quantitative, and its method of data collection, is documentary and survey. The statistical population of this study includes experts and development planners of East and West Azerbaijan provinces who were selected by snowball sampling. The questionnaires were completed only by those who are were involved in the development and planning of the province. The analysis of this study using the matrix method was a cross-sectional effect based on dolphin. Also, to analyze the data and information and display them in an understandable way, the method of estimating the kernel density in the software environment of the geographic information system has been used. Results and Discussion The findings show the effects of declining economic value on agricultural land, increasing government spending in various sectors, declining production and changing the type of some agricultural products, weakening the tourism sector, creating class gaps (inequalities), smuggling development, and false employment. Changing the cultivation pattern is not strategic due to its high dependence on other outcomes and most of the other resulted variables (. In contrast, the decline in employment in agriculture, rising unemployment and declining incomes in agriculture and animal husbandry were among the most important and strategic consequences of declining lake water levels. Reducing employment in the agricultural sector in rural areas alone is one of the most influential economic consequences in the region, which has been recognized as an important factor in creating spatial imbalances in the study area. In order to examine this consequence more accurately, using the spatial coefficient method and estimating the kernel density, the status of this consequence on the habitat habitats in the study basin was investigated. The results of the spatial coefficient method showed that this region is the exporter of service and industrial labor force, while in the agricultural sector it has less labor force. Conclusion Achieving equality and balance in various economic, social and environmental dimensions is one of the characteristics of a country's development. Meanwhile, economic equality is another basic dimension of development. In the present study, an attempt was made to investigate the causes of this inequality and imbalance in the catchment area of Lake Urmia. Structural analysis was used to achieve a forward-looking perspective. In this regard, various groups of experts completed the questionnaire as the panel of experts. Initially, the most important economic implications of declining lake water levels over the next ten years were identified. The results were then analyzed in Micmac analysis software, and the economic drivers of declining lake water levels were identified and analyzed. Finally, proposals were made to prevent the problems caused by unemployment, and consequently, the migration of the inhabitants of these areas. Encouraging small businesses and job creation in the region, as well as providing them with long-term facilities and improving the business environment as one of the most important and effective components for economic development and empowering the private sector, should be considered as solutions This is because providing infrastructure and infrastructure, strengthening enterprises and economic mechanisms, supporting production, paying attention to science and technology parks and growth centers, taking steps to facilitate business, improving the volume of industrial production and boosting production ، اIt will play the most important role in the development of the regional economy. But achieving this is essential to keeping the lake afloat in balance. Keywords: Spatial imbalance, economic drivers, structural analysis, Mick Mac, Urmia Lake در دهه‌های اخیر، دریاچۀ ارومیه با کاهش جدی آب مواجه شده است. این امر به نوبۀ خود اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستفیم بر وضعیت اقتصادی مناطق و سکونتگاه‌های اطراف و به‌‌تبع آن بر عدم تعادل‌های فضایی در منطقه داشته است. این پژوهش، با نگاه آینده‌پژوهانه به شناسایی مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های اقتصادی مؤثر در عدم تعادل‌های فضایی پرداخته است. تحقیق حاضر از نوع تحلیل ساختاری، از نظر ماهیت داده‌ها کیفی و بر‌اساس روش گردآوری داده‌ها، اسنادی و پیمایشی و قلمرو تحقیق نیز حوضۀ آبریز دریاچۀ ارومیه است. جامعۀ آماری این تحقیق شامل خبرگان و برنامه‌ریزان در منطقۀ مورد مطالعه می‌باشد که بـه روش (گلوله برفی) 35 نفر بـه‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب شده‌اند. در این تحقیق، سعی شده است با بررسی آمار و شاخص‌های اقتصادی میزان این اثرات بیشتر آشکار گردد. بنابراین، از ماتریس تأثیرات متقاطع در محیط نرم‌افزار میک‌مک جهت شناسایی نیروهای پیشران، از ضریب مکانی (LQ) و تخمین تراکم کرنل در محیط نرم‌افزاری ARC GIS برای تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل داده‌ها و اطلاعات استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل داده‌ها نشان می‌دهد، از 15 پیامد اقتصادی مهم در منطقه، کاهش اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی، افزایش بیکاری و کاهش درآمد در بخش کشاورزی و دامداری از مهم‌ترین و اثرگذارترین پیامدهای ناشی از کاهش سطح آب دریاچه خواهد بود. کاهش اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی به تنهایی از تأثیرگذارترین پیامدهای اقتصادی در منطقه می‌باشد که نقش مهمی در ایجاد عدم تعادل‌های فضایی در منطقه مورد مطالعه شناخته شده است. همچنین یافته‌های ضریب مکانی نیز نشان می‌دهد، این محدوده در بخش کشاورزی صادر‌کنندۀ نیروی کار می‌باشد. در حالی‌که اقتصاد اصلی این منطقه، کشاورزی است و بیشترین نیرو در بخش خدمات فعالیت می‌کند که تصاویر به‌دست آمده از تحلیل تراکم کرنل نیز این امر را اثبات کرد. واژه‌های کلیدی: عدم تعادل فضایی، پیشران‌های اقتصادی، تحلیل ساختاری، میک‌مک، دریاچۀ ارومیه.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14677_e5c69c0e3063671d1cd77ef51c041b83.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 4 2020 12 21 Three Dimensional Change Detection in Urban Environment Using Object Based Image Analysis on DEMs آشکارسازی سه‌بُعدی تغییرات کاربری اراضی شهری مبتنی بر تحلیل شیء مبنای مدل‌های رقومی ارتفاعی 99 116 14678 FA فاطمه طبیب محمودی دانشگاه تربیت دبیر شهید رجایی سیده شراره حسینی دانشگاه تربیت دبیر شهید رجایی Journal Article Introduction: Multi temporal changes in built up areas are mainly caused by natural disasters (such as floods and earthquakes) or urban sprawl. Detecting these changes which consist of construction, destruction and renovation of buildings can play an important role in updating three dimensional city models. Multi-temporal remote sensing data are one the powerful tools for detecting urban changes due to the increasing growth and then, for updating the three dimensional city models. Urban changes detection methods using various types of remotely sensed data have been proposed by many researchers to meet a wide range of applications (Singh, 1989). Considering the procedure of algorithms and the utilized multi-temporal remote sensing data, change detection algorithms can be divided into two dimensional and three dimensional categories (Qin et al., 2016). Many of the proposed urban change detection methodologies have utilized only the multi-spectral remote sensing data without considering digital elevation models, which caused some problems in buildings identification (Bouziani et al., 2010; Brunner et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2014; Vakalopoulou et al., 2015). Two dimensional changes detection methods have some serious problems such as high computational cost and inaccessible volumetric information due to the absence of altitude data. Moreover, as digital elevation models can be easily produced recently, the three dimensional changes detection methods are more concerned (Martha et al., 2010; Tian et al., 2014; Waser et al., 2008; Daniel & Doran, 2013; Gruen, 2013). Three dimensional change detection methods are suitable for identifying the changes of high altitude objects such as buildings and their results are more close to reality. Three dimensional change detection methods can be considered in one of the spectral-geometric analysis methods or geometric comparison (Qin et al., 2016). Methodology: The objective of this study is to provide an effective method for three dimensional changes detection of buildings in urban areas based on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). The proposed three dimensional building change detection algorithm in this research is considered for estimating the construction of new buildings in flat areas and renovation of low-rise buildings (up to three floors) in order to make high-rise ones (more than three floors). The proposed method in this paper consists of three main steps; 1) generating Digital Surface Model (DSM), Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and normalized DSM for two epochs, 2) performing object based image analysis consists of segmentation and structural classification of DEMs in order to generate multi temporal classification maps, 3) producing the change maps and analyzing the change percentages between various object classes. Resullts & Discussion: The ability of the proposed algorithm is evaluated in a rapid developing urban area in Tehran, Iran in a 9-years interval. The obtained results represent that the ground and bare soil decreased for about -1.37% and low-rise buildings also decreased for about -9.7%. Moreover, the class of high-rise buildings increased for about +16.4% which conforms making new constructions in addition to renovation of low-rise buildings. As the objective of this research was to investigate the three aspects of changes in built up areas containing new constructions, destruction and renovation of buildings, some interesting results are obtained. The main changes occurred in this region are in the new construction category with 4.8% growth which is occurred to about 132680 square meters of the study area. Moreover, the renovation of low-rise buildings to high-rise ones is 3.05% of land use equivalent to 83889.5 square meters. The obtained results showed 3.89% destructions in the buildings which is occurred to 106896.25 square meters of this study area. Most of the destructions are in the low-rise building class which confirms decreasing the worn texture of the city and urban passages sweating. Conclusion: According to the results, the construction of new buildings is faster than the vertical growth of the city and its destruction in this 9-years period. As it is clear from the results of this study, change detection in urban environment can help urban planners to manage land resources and prevent the growth of irregular constructions. As high-rise buildings prevent wind, disrupt the urban ecosystem and increase air pollution, it is important to control and manage the vertical growth of the cities. Kay words: Three dimensional change detection, Building, Object Based Image Analysis, Segmentation, Normalized DSM تغییرات در محیط زیست شهری، عمدتاً در ساخت، تخریب یا بازسازی ساختمان‌ها، تحت‌تأثیر عواملی نظیر بلایای طبیعی و یا گسترش شهری به‌وجود می‌آیند. شناسایی این تغییرات می‌تواند نقش بسزایی در بروز‌رسانی مدل‌های سه‌بُعدی شهری و تصمیم‌گیری صحیح مدیران در مدیریت سوانح و بحران‌ها داشته باشد. از میان تمامی روش‌های آشکارسازی تغییرات که به دو دستۀ دوبعدی و سه‌بُعدی تقسیم می‌شوند، روش‌های آشکارسازی سه‌بُعدی تغییرات ساختمان‌ها، به‌دلیل مرتفع بودن عارضۀ ساختمان، مناسب‌تر هستند و نتایج حاصل از آن‌ها به واقعیت نزدیک‌تر است. هدف از این مطالعه ارائۀ روشی مؤثر برای آشکارسازی سه‌بُعدی تغییر در ساختمان‌های مناطق شهری براساس مدل‌های رقومی ارتفاعی است. روش ارائه‌شده در این مقاله شامل سه‌مرحله اصلی است: 1) تولید مدل رقومی سطح، مدل رقومی زمین و مدل رقومی سطح نرمال در دو بازۀ زمانی، 2) انجام تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل شی‌ء مبنا شامل قطعه‌بندی و طبقه‌بندی ساختاری مدل‌های رقومی ارتفاعی به‌منظور تولید نقشه‌های طبقه‌بندی چندزمانه، 3) تهیۀ نقشه‌های تغییر و تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل درصد تغییر بین کلاس‌های مختلف عوارض در مناطق شهری. توانایی الگوریتم پیشنهادی در یک منطقه شهری در‌حال‌توسعه سریع در تهران، در فاصلۀ زمانی 9 ساله ارزیابی شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده حاکی از کاهش سطح زمین و خاک لخت در حدود 37/1% است و همچنین، ساختمان‌های کم‌ارتفاع (کمتر از 3 طبقه) نیز در حدود 6/7% کاهش یافته‌اند. علاوه‌بر این، کلاس ساختمان‌های مرتفع (بیش از سه طبقه) در حدود 4/16% افزایش یافته که علاوه‌بر نوسازی ساختمان‌های کم‌ارتفاع، سازه‌های جدید را نیز شامل می‌شود. واژه‌های کلیدی:شکارسازی تغییرات، ساختمان‌، مدل سه‌بُعدی شهری، تحلیل شی‌ء ‌مبنا، قطعه‌بندی، ویژگی‌های ساختاری.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14678_5847ac0c8efb8552d1b7c42a4c3f2418.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 4 2020 12 21 Expounding the Relation between Rapid Urbanization and Economic Ideology of the State in Political Management of National Space تبیین رابطه شهرنشینی شتابان با ایدئولوژی اقتصادی حکومت در مدیریت سیاسی فضای ملی 117 151 14679 FA ابوالفضل کاوندی کاتب پژوهشگر فرادکتری دانشگاه تربیت مدرس محمدرضا حافظ نیا استاد جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس Journal Article Expounding the Relation between Rapid Urbanization and Economic Ideology of the State in Political Management of National Space[1] Abstract Introduction One of the most important issues in the political management of national space in any country is distribution of population based on the settlement system dominant on the country (urban and rural) and the level of concentration and distribution of population in them. Urbanization is a rapid phenomenon during this half century and 55 percent of the world population lives in the cities. In 1960, urban population of the world shared 33.8 of the world population, which reached to 39.3, 46.7 and 56 percent in 1980, 2000 and 2020, respectively; and it is forecasted to reach to 62.5 percent in 2035. This means population changes along with increase in population rate which has resulted in urbanization rate. The most changes have occurred in Asian and African countries. The states’ strategy is urbanization of social life. The comparison of the changes among the countries shows huge differences. For example, in Iran urban population shared to 33.7, 49.7, 64, 75.9 percent of the total population in 1960, 1980, 2000 and 75.9, respectively. It is also forecasted to reach to more than 80 percent in 2035. Iran is one of the countries which has higher urbanization rate than the world average. In this article, beside historical trend of the growth in urban population of the world, the causes and contexts of the issue will be investigated. In fact, in this article the strategy of the states and in particular Iran in management system of the settlements will be investigated from view point of political geography and political management of the space with emphasis on development of urbanization. The other issue is understating the strategy of the states in development of small or big cities based on balanced or imbalanced distribution of the population in cities’ network. Based on the UN divisions, the urban population number is a criterion for classification. So, the strategy of the states in creation and development of urban areas with more than 300 thousand people will be investigated. Methodology The research method is based on descriptive-analytics method and the data gathering procedure is based on library findings. Some of the data are urban population data in four period of times including 1960, 1980, 2000 and 2020 which is compared with each other. The data resource is the UN department of economic and social affairs. Excel software is used to calculate the growth rate, ranking and calculation of formula. Regarding the data volume, after classification, the results of the calculation are showed by map and table using descriptive statistics. After calculation of population changes in four periods of times and investigation of strategies of states in management of urban system, the causes of growth in urbanization are investigated using library findings. 180 independent countries are investigated in this article. Results and discussion Growth in urbanization is a process which would be investigated in a global context and in particular in the countries, because this phenomenon is resulted from social and economic evolutions of the states and also affects the states. The authors believe that what happened in developing countries were the results of political evolution than social and economic evolutions in order to urbanize the population to reach their governmental goals. The research with emphasis on Iran considers the factors such as globalization, economic growth, education, concentration of facilities, ignoring rural and state policies as the most important factors in urbanization process and by proposing the theory of “government, centralized urbanization and survival”, considers the role of government important due to factors such as ease in providing facilities, increase in government size, creation of core-periphery dependence, national security and survival, lack of planning in political management of national space, economic ideology of the governments in particular capitalist, and liberalist and neo-liberalist economic strategies. So, the governments have pivotal role in urbanization of system of political management of national space, but economic – social evolutions would not be ignored, but this factor is also affected by government strategies. Three strategies can be seen in the development of big and small cities of the countries: population distribution strategy and development of small cities; middle strategy (simultaneous development of metropolitans and small cities) and strategy of population concentration by establishment of metropolitans and low development of small cities. Conclusion Some strategies can be proposed from view point of political management of national space in relation with the strategy of settlement system of Iran geographic space, as follows: to control the rapid urbanization and to adapt this issue with local requirements and capacity of geographic space of the cities of the country; promotion of population and urbanized population in small cities and distribution of population of the country in small cities in all around the territory; promotion of urbanization culture and attemptto promote life standards in small cities, in particular in low-facilitated regions, and emergency attention to rural area and attempt to protect the population who live in rural areas. Keywords: Urbanization; Political Management of the Space; the World; Iran از مسائل مهم در مدیریت سیاسی فضای ملی هر کشوری، توزیع جغرافیایی جمعیت بر حسب نظام سکونتگاهی آن کشور (شهر و روستا) و میزان تمرکز و پخش جمعیت در آن‌هاست. شهرنشینی پدیده‌ای پرشتاب طی نیم قرن اخیر بوده و امروز بیش از 55‌% از جمعیت جهان شهرنشین هستند. در این مقاله، ضمن مطالعۀ روند تاریخی افزایش جمعیت شهرنشنین کشورهای جهان در چهار مقطع زمانی از سال 1960 تا 2020 م، به‌دلایل و زمینه‌های این موضوع، از دیدگاه مدیریت سیاسی فضا می‌پردازیم. نویسندگان معتقدند شهرنشینی در کشورهای در‌حال‌توسعه، بیش از آنکه ناشی از تحولات اجتماعی ـ اقتصادی باشد، حاصل تحولات سیاسی و به‌ویژه خواست حکومت، به‌منظور دستیابی به اهداف حاکمیتی است. این تحقیق با تأکید بر ایران، دلایلی چون جهانی‌شدن، رشد اقتصادی، آموزش، تمرکز امکانات، بی‌توجهی به روستا و سیاست‌گذاری‌های دولتی را از عوامل مهم تأثیرگذار در فرایند شهری شدن دانسته و در پایان با ارائۀ «نظریۀ دولت، شهرنشینی متمرکز و بقا»، نقش دولت را به واسطۀ عللی چون سهولت در خدمات رسانی، بزرگ‌تر کردن اندازۀ دولت، ایجاد وابستگی مرکز ـ پیرامونی، بقا و امنیت ملی و بی‌تدبیری و بی‌برنامگی در مدیریت سیاسی فضای ملی، پررنگ‌تر می‌داند. واژه‌های کلیدی: شهرنشینی، مدیریت سیاسی فضا، ایدئولوژی اقتصادی، جهان و ایران.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14679_676bc6cef834fe54277b1954f6cd4c5c.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 4 2020 12 21 Grounded Theory Analysis on the Pathology of Urban Development Plans in Iran تحلیل زمینه‌ای برآسیب‌شناسی طرح‌های توسعۀ شهری در ایران 153 175 14680 FA حجت الله کولیوند مرتضی طلاچیان حمید ماجدی Journal Article Introduction Urban development can be considered as the basis of urban, economic, social, political, cultural and legal restructuring which its main purpose is to improve the urbanization process , repair the urban environment, organize the urban economy and strengthen the political, social and cultural aspects of urban life. In this regard, it should be said that urban development plans are documents that guide and control how cities develop, which enable city managers to achieve the desired vision of the city in the horizon of the plan, which is usually a long-term landscape. In the country's planning system, it has been more than half a century since the preparation of the first urban development plans in the modern sense. It is usually prepared or revised for most cities of the country in the form of urban development plans including development plan (comprehensive urban plan), detailed plan, strategic structural plans, special plan and other case plans. Iran's urban development planning system is typical and for all cities, regardless of spatial variation, the service description is the same. Despite many disadvantages, these plans have been able to provide adequate answers to urban problems. Therefore, research for identification and pathology of urban development plans - due to the complexity of urban issues, increasing population and cities, diversity and multiplicity of needs and wants-seems obvious and necessary. Methodology In this research, the purpose is practical, the main approach is inductive/deductive, the type of research is qualitative based on documentary studies which its statistical population are articles published in the country since. In this regard, through library studies and searching the scientific databases of the country, including the database of Iranian journals and magazines (Magiran) and the scientific database of Jahad Daneshgahi (SID), universities and journals related to the relevant items were extracted and classified. Then with in-depth interviews with 15 experts on urban development plan, using 10MAXQDA software as an effective tool in the analysis of qualitative data, open coding and axial codes were extracted and finally selective coding was performed. Based on this, first, the frequency of damage is extracted and presented in a new category. In the next step, the relationships between the damages are through network analysis using NODE XL software. Based on this, cause and effect relationships between damage and their prioritization are analyzed as graphs (combination of edges and nodes). Results and discussion Based on the data output, first two categories of non-realization and inefficiency have been considered as core categories in the pathology of urban development plans (comprehensive plan). This means that the basis of research on the pathology of urban development plans has been to study and prove these two axes. In the First core category (non-realization), physical and demographic goals account for nearly 80% of the topics of non-realization of projects, which can be due to the lack of explanation for other dimensions as project goals; and therefore, the neglect of clear and achievable goals in other dimensions of urban development in the plans. The root of an important part of the failure to achieve goals in all sectors is related to the lack of clear explanation of economic goals for urban development plans and the physical failure node, which is considered the largest failure of cities in terms of failure to achieve goals based on studies. Therefore, in urban development plans, the economic and financial issues of the city and programs should be prioritized . The second category is the weakness in the formulation of basic concepts in urban development, which in order to exploit theories and localization, requires the production of basic and practical concepts in the field of urban development plans. The third category in the inefficiency of urban development plans is joint ventures and participation of stakeholders in the process and various dimensions of development plans, including economic issues. The fourth and fifth categories are content weakness and weakness in the intellectual and technical foundations of urban development plans, in which the appropriateness of the plans in accordance with the environmental conditions, localization is one of their key issues. Conclusion The axial categories of non-realization and inefficiency of the two core categories were introduced in the researches in such a way that everything that has been proposed as the realization of goals is in the field of physical and demographic goals, and this raises the need for comprehensiveness in formulating goals. The results indicate that in the macro view, the description of the disabilities has been preferred by the researchers rather than the analysis of the cause and reasons. Accordingly, when the issue of participation is raised, it seems necessary to discuss how and in what way, according to local conditions and when in theoretical foundations the issue of flexibility of plans is raised as a disadvantage according to the cultural conditions of society and when the lines are not clearly defined, it can challenge the issue of efficiency and realization of plans worse than flexibility . In another part of the findings, education as one of the pillars that can be the basis of awareness, coordination, cooperation, knowledge, and as one of the causes for the failure of projects has been neglected by researchers. In this regard, the use of research methods such as fish bones can be useful in the analysis of hierarchy and the pathological cause of urban development plans. Keywords: Urban Development Plans, Pathology, ground Theory, Iran چکیده نیم‌قرن تجربۀ تهیۀ طرح‌های توسعۀ شهری نشان می‌دهد به‌رغم جنبه‌های مفید و سازنده، این طرح‌ها همچنان نتوانسته‌اند پاسخی بی‌بدیل در‌خصوص مسائل و مشکلات روزافزون شهری ارائه نمایند. در این رهگذر مطالعات زیادی در‌خصوص آسیب‌شناسی طرح‌های توسعه در کشور صورت گرفته است بررسی مجدد آسیب‌ها بر‌اساس مطالعات صورت گرفته و شناخت روابط علت معلولی آن‌ها می‌تواند نقش موثری در تبیین مسائل و جمع‌بندی از قضایا داشته باشد. در این مقاله، بر‌اساس تئوری زمینه‌ای ابتدا اقدام به واکاوی محتوایی مقالات آسیب‌شناسی طرح‌های توسعۀ شهری از دهۀ 70 به بعد درکشور و سپس مصاحبه عمیق با صاحب‌نظران با استفاده از نرم‌افزار MAXQDAشده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان‌دهندۀ دو مقولۀ هسته‌ایی عدم تحقق و عدم کارائی در مطالعات است که در مقولۀ عدم تحقق 80 درصد مفاهیم استخراجی آن مربوط به عدم تحقق کالبدی و جمعیتی شهرها است که نشان از عدم تعریف سایر اهداف به شکل روشن در طرح‌ها می‌باشد و مقولۀ عدم کارائی34 مقولۀ محوری ثانویه در قالب 7مقولۀ محوری اولیه و 5 مقولۀ محوری اصلی تحلیل و جمع‌بندی گردید که مقولۀ اصلی نظام و مدیریت شهری در کشور با 34 درصد حجم مفاهیم و زمینه‌های کارآمدی و تحقق با 25 درصد مهم‌ترین عناصر ناکارآمدی طرح‌ها محسوب می‌گردد و این امر بیانگر آن است که محتوای طرح‌های توسعه شهری آن‌چنان‌ که در محافل علمی مطرح می‌گردد عامل اصلی ناکارآمدی طرح‌ها محسوب نمی‌گردد. همچنین بر‌اساس تحلیل گراف روابط بین مقولات اولیۀ عوامل زمینه‌ای از‌جمله ابهام در منابع مالی، ضعف در قوانین و مقررات و مشارکت ذی‌نفعان به‌ترتیب مهم‌ترین مسائل در ناکارآمدی طرح‌ها محسوب می‌گردد. واژه‌های کلیدی‌: طرح‌های توسعۀ شهری، آسیب‌شناسی، تئوری زمینه‌ای، ایران.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14680_f31bad5d6425dd6d172c786a1bffe4a7.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 4 2020 12 21 The Role of Creative Tourism in Tourists Stay and its Impact on Economic Development (Case Study of Boshruyeh in South Khorasan نقش گردشگری خلاق در ماندگاری گردشگران و اثر آن بر توسعه توسعۀ اقتصادی(نمونه نمونۀ موردی بشرویه خراسان جنوبی 177 207 14681 FA رستم صابری فر دانشیار دانشگاه پیام نور ایران Journal Article Introduction: Tourism currently accounts for a large share of countries' GDP and in some cases reaches 80% for small countries. However, In Iran, in general, and in less developed cities in particular, tourism is not exploited to a great extent. Among various regions of the country, South Khorasan province has one of the weakest economies because of its unstable natural and climatic conditions. In this regard, Boshruyeh has a particular status, so that policy makers and even public do not believe in the effectiveness of tourism industry on the economic prosperity of this region. To change this trend from 2015 onwards, it was tried to hold meetings with some of the influential in this city, through which creative initiatives in the process of revitalizing tourism attractions and especially their sustainability were put into practice. One of the basic approaches suggested and welcomed in this area was creative tourism. To this end, tourism industry leaders and executives were urged to apply creative strategies such as hosting desert skydiving festivals and exploring the sky, changing symbols and elements of the city, organizing food festivals, holding competitions associated with documentaries, etc. so that tourists could spend more time in the city and particularly, spend the night in the city. These changes had so significant consequences and impacts that after the first year of implementation, the number of side programs increased from 8 at the beginning to 23 at the end of the period. To investigate this effect, the present study was conducted to discuss scientifically and systematically the developments that occurred. This study is descriptive and analytical in terms of its method. However, in terms of objective, it is considered practical. The required data have been obtained from existing documents, especially the province input and output table along with field surveys after which necessary adjustments were made. Two completely different steps were considered in this study. As such, the conditions were first adjusted using the province input and output table in 2015 and other data; and then the developments in tourism entry and stay following the adoption of a creative tourism approach were compared with the trends mentioned to determine what impact this approach had had on the developments in the tourism industry and ultimately on the economic development of the city. To this end, in addition to responsible organizations, the number of tourists entering the city was determined using re-hunting method to account for changes that were left out of the view of these institutions and organizations. Accordingly, in the first part, the collected data were evaluated using the method of determining the city's input-output coefficients based on the adjustment of national coefficients. In this method, . Flegg Semi-Logarithmic Location Quotient (FLQ) was used to determine the coefficients. For this purpose, based on the National Input-Output Table, the Input-Output Table of South Khorasan Province was first calculated and the parameters needed to minimize production forecast error were determined. Next, based on the national table, the city table was determined using these parameters. In fact, by considering employment as a criterion of the dimensions of the space economy and adjustment of the technical coefficients of the national and regional table, the direct urban coefficients were determined using existing relationships in econometric models. In the second stage, and exploring the impact of the Creative tourism approach, the data were analyzed based on provincial data and output table in 2018, and the results were compared with the findings of the first stage. In order to achieve the research objectives, the matrix of direct production coefficients was first prepared at the national, provincial, and urban levels. According to this information, the relationship between economic sectors was determined at the levels indicated. As expected, the direct national coefficients were greater than direct provincial coefficients and the direct provincial coefficients were larger than urban ones, and their ranking at the indicated levels was quite different. The reason for this is that basically, larger areas are more self-sufficient and small and medium-sized ones have to get more outflows from higher levels or neighboring areas. Computations were made in order to obtain the increase in the final demand of indirect effects, and the results indicated that production multipliers in all sectors were higher at the national level compared to the provincial level, while both of them were higher than urban level. In addition, ranking the importance of sectors is quite different in the potential for economic growth. According to this information, the higher the coefficient, the higher the produced economic value will be. To determine the effect of tourism on increasing employment, employment multipliers were used. Since there was no independent study on this connection at the urban level, the direct coefficients of employment in this city were assumed to be equal to the national and provincial levels and hence, the multipliers of this city were calculated. Overall, the results showed that under normal circumstances, a total of 131 people were added to the city for the number of city employees and the city's production also earned 567 billion rials. But with the benefits of Creative tourism, the figure in 2019, rises to 166 people and 706 billion rials, respectively. Considering the impact of tourism on income and employment in Boshruyeh, the proposed strategies for this city include strengthening the tourism industry and investment in the sectors that have the highest impact on increasing income and employment. In fact, the results of this study can help authorities to justify large investments in the tourism sector, while people will also recognize the status and importance of tourism and change their behavior accordingly. Undoubtedly, for many economic activists, attention to empirical findings can be helpful to change profitable activities. According to the results of this survey, which indicate the profitability of some specific economic sectors compared to others, it is hoped that the economic activists pay more attention to the sectors which have been neglected so far. Such a situation will make the economic and social impact of tourism in this small town more fundamental. Key Words: Creative tourism, job creation, economic development, Boshruyeh city. شهرهای میان‌راهی به‌خصوص اگر فاقد جاذبه‌های طبیعی و اقلیمی مناسب باشند، کمتر از خیل عظیم گردشگران عبوری بهره‌برداری نموده و اغلب فقط عوارض ناشی از عبور این افراد را تحمل می‌‌کنند. این در حالی است که با اندکی تلاش می‌توان این روند را معکوس نمود. به‌همین منظور، این بررسی قصد دارد تا اثر اتخاذ رویکرد گردشگری خلاق در ماندگاری گردشگران و نقش آن را در توسعۀ اقتصادی شهر بشرویه مورد بررسی قرار دهد. به این منظور، از روش توصیفی و تحلیلی بهره‌برداری شده و داده‌های مورد نیاز از اسناد موجود به‌خصوص جدول داده و ستانده استان و آمار گردشگران ورودی به این شهر به‌دست آمد. داده‌های گردآوری شده با استفاده از روش‌های اقتصاد‌سنجی تعیین ضرایب داده‌ستانده شهر و روش سهم‌مکانی تعمیم‌یافته مورد تحلیل قرارگرفت. نتایج نشان داد که در شرایط عادی به‌ازای ورود گردشگران داخلی در مجموع 131 نفر بر تعداد شاغلین شهر افزوده شده و تولید شهر نیز از این لحاظ 567 میلیارد ریال منفعت به‌دست می‌آورد. اما در سال مورد‌نظر (1398) و با بهره‌مندی از گردشگری خلاق، این میزان به‌ترتیب به سطح 166 نفر و 706 میلیارد ریال افزایش می‌یابد. واژه‌های کلیدی: گردشگری خلاق، ایجاد اشتغال، توسعۀ اقتصادی، شهر بشرویه.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14681_628f7dc50810e974c046a6b5e89246fc.pdf