دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 23 1 2019 05 22 Explanation of uncertainties in environmental hazard zonation using Dempster-Shafer theory. Case Study: Landslide hazard in southern Chalous تبیین عدم قطعیت در مدل های پهنه بندی مخاطرات محیطی با استفاده از الگوریتم دمپستر- شفر Dempster-Shafer)) 1 24 14602 FA نسرین محمدی ثابت دانشگاه تربیت مدرس جلال کرمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس محمد شریفی کیا دانشگاه تربیت مدرس Journal Article Today, a wide range of spatial analysis models are used in environmental risk zoning. Some models, such as hierarchical and fuzzy analyzes, despite the inclusion of uncertainty in the input variables, are unable to explain quantitatively the output uncertainty. In this study, the aim of evaluating the capabilities of the Dempster-Schaeffer algorithm is to explain the uncertainty in the outcomes for landslide hazard zonation in the south of Chalus. Therefore, after field studies and review of similar studies, a map of 10 factors was provided in the GIS environment and was introduced as input data along with a map of the distribution of landslides to the model. Landslide hazard zonation was performed by integrating different weights in the Dempster-Sheffer model and in order to evaluate the output of the model, a logistic regression model was used; the performance of the two models was based on the output results of the models and using two indicators of the density ratio (Dr) And the sum of utility (Qs) was evaluated and verified. The results of Dr showed that both models had good performance in identifying high-risk classes compared to low risk classes. Based on the Qs index, the Dempster-Schafer model with QS = 98/2 was good compared to Logistic regression model with QS = 91/66 has a better relative utility. Therefore, the D-S model is more successful in identifying risk classes (finiteness) and consequently hazard classes (uncertainty) in the region. امروزه طیف وسیعی از مدل های تحلیل مکانی در پهنه بندی مخاطرات محیطی مورد استفاده قرار گرفته اند. برخی از مدل ها مانند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و فازی، علی رغم لحاظ کردن عدم قطعیت در متغیرهای ورودی، از تبیین کمی مقادیر عدم قطعیت در خروجی ناتوان هستند. در این مطالعه، هدف ارزیابی قابلیت های الگوریتم دمپستر- شفر در تبیین عدم قطعیت در نتایج خروجی برای پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش در جنوب شهرستان چالوس می باشد. بنابراین پس از بررسی های میدانی و مرور مطالعات مشابه نقشه 10 عامل در محیط GIS تهیه و به عنوان داده های ورودی به همراه نقشه پراکنش زمین لغزش های موجود به مدل معرفی شدند. پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش با ادغام لایه های مختلف وزنی در مدل دمپستر-شفر انجام و به منظور ارزیابی خروجی مدل از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک استفاده گردید؛ کارایی دو مدل بر اساس نتایج خروجی مدل ها و با استفاده از دو شاخص نسبت تراکم (Dr) و جمع مطلوبیت (Qs) مورد ارزیابی و صحت سنجی قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصلDr نشان داد که در هر دو مدل در تشخیص کلاس های با خطر بالا نسبت به کلاس های با خطر پایین خوب عمل نموده اند و از بین دو مدل بر اساس نتایج شاخص Qs، مدل دمپستر- شفر با 02/98=Qs نسبت به مدل رگرسیون لجستیک با 66/91=Qs دارای مطلوبیت نسبی بهتری است. بنابراین مدل D-S در تشخیص کلاس های خطر (قطعیت) و به تبع آن کلاس های عدم خطر (عدم قطعیت) در منطقه موفق تر عمل نموده است.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14602_2548e0a7d08ca169af9729e03206e6a1.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 23 1 2019 05 22 Impact of the BeheshtAbad Dam Construction on the households' Livelihood Strategies of Local Communities تأثیر احداث سد بهشت‌آباد بر راهبردهای معیشت خانوارهای جوامع محلی 25 51 14603 FA لادن نادری کارشناسی ارشد، گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران اسماعیل کرمی دهکردی استاد،گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان Journal Article Abstract Many nations with an increasing population face a serious shortage of water and the supply and distribution of water is not proportional to their demand. The construction of dams is one of the main mechanisms undertaken by policy makers for managing the challenge of water scarcity in recent decades, but this strategy can lead to negative social, economic and environmental consequences. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the views of local households regarding the possible consequences of the construction of the Beheshtabad dam on their agricultural and non-agricultural livelihood strategies. This survey was carried out in the origin basin and the area of the dam establishement, the Beheshtakad Watershed located in the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province of Iran. A sample of 200 out of 3514 households was selected using a multi stage sampling technique and the data were collected through structured interviews utilizing a questionnaire. From the perspective of the households in local communities, the construction of the Beheshtabad dam would lead to destroying their agricultural and non-agricultural physical assets and increasing their livelihoods' vulnerability, which can cause increased migration, local culture change, turning households into illicit jobs, and the collapse of households due to displacement or forced rural-urban migration. Their view was significantly influenced by households' having agriculture and service occupation, their land area, their number of small or large animals, and household heads' age and education. This research showed that from the view of local rural and urban communities, if the dam is constructed, their physical assets would be damaged and their jobs would be destroyed, though a few new jobs related to industry and service may be created. This implies that policy makers and planning programmers need to reconsider the necessity, possibility and consequences of establishing this dam, before any decision on it. Keywords: Dam construction, livelihood strategy, local community, water crisis Introduction Impact of the BeheshtAbad Dam Construction on the households' Livelihood Strategies of Local Communities Water as a main natural resource is an essential element of life that have an important role in the vital processes and sustainability of all living organisms, including the sustainable development of human societies. Many nations with an increasing population face a serious shortage of water and the supply and distribution of water is not proportional to their demand. The major causes of global water scarcity in the world, according to Conor (1999), are population growth, economic growth, per capita energy consumption, technical development, land use change, increased environmental degradation, inappropriate government plans, and climate change. The world's population growth and raising the standard of living has led to increased demand and water consumption, while there has been decreased fresh water resources in the world. Water crisis or threat is much more important in nations located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, including Iran. The construction of dams and inter-basin water transfer have been one of the main mechanisms undertaken by policy makers for managing the challenge of water scarcity in recent decades, but this strategy can lead to negative social, economic and environmental consequences. The interest to establish large dams has been a method for generating more hydroelectric power, water supply and reducing global climate change. One of the most important issues at the time of implementing these projects and after the construction of these dams is the displacement of the settlements located behind the dam reservoir, which lead to forced migration and can have negative consequences, such as poverty and the insecurity of local households’ livelihoods. This is in contrast with the sustainable development goals in developing countries. Livelihoods’ strategy change is considered to be serious in this condition, because most local households have been faced with poverty and unemployment so this infrastructural investment can make their livelihoods much more vulnerable. Mandatory migration can change the production system of the households. Moreover, most businesses, fertilized land and other assets can be destroyed, and the economy of local households can be vulnerable. The Beheshtabad dam is to be constructed in the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province to be a reservoir dam for transferring water to three central provinces of Iran. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the views of local households regarding the possible consequences of the construction of the Beheshtabad dam on their agricultural and non-agricultural livelihood strategies. Methodology This study is a descriptive-correlational applied research based on an exploratory survey methodology. Moreover, some semi-structured interviews were conducted with some experts of the province and key persons of local communities to obtain background information about the region and topic, to improve the content validity of survey instrument. The data were collected through the structured interview technique with households living in local communities under the influence of the construction of the Beheshtabad dam using a questionnaire, established by the research team. This survey was carried out in the Beheshtakad watershed located in the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province of Iran. A sample of 200 out of 3514 households was selected using a multi stage sampling technique Results and discussion The survey showed that the construction of the Beheshtabad dam to transfer water from the source to the destination would directly and indirectly affect local communities located in the source basin. Local rural and urban households would be the first population, whose livelihoods’ strategies would be damaged. Local communities are directly affected in terms of cultural, historical, social and economic aspects of their livelihoods. The existing local households’ livelihood strategies and physical assets were evaluated to be appropriate for their livelihoods, though in some aspects they have vulnerability. However, local communities perceived that the establishment of this dam as a threat to their livelihoods. They believed that the dam construction would destroy their physical assets, particularly their arable land, rangelands, houses and infrastructures, and livelihood strategies, such as crop production and livestock keeping. The more households’ livelihoods were dependent on natural resources and agriculture, the more they would feel vulnerable to the dam consequences. This showed that the local households had negative view on the dam construction. Conclusion From the perspective of the households in local communities, the construction of the Beheshtabad dam would lead to destroying their agricultural and non-agricultural physical assets and increasing their livelihoods' vulnerability, which can cause increased migration, local culture change, turning households into illicit jobs, and the collapse of households due to displacement or forced rural-urban migration. Their view is significantly influenced by households' having agriculture and service occupation, their land area, their number of small or large animals, and household heads' age and education. This research shows that from the local rural and urban communities’ views, if the dam is constructed, their physical assets would be damaged and their jobs would be destroyed, though a few new jobs related to industry and service may be created. This implies that the policy makers and planning programmers need to reconsider the necessity, possibility and consequences of establishing this dam, before any decision on it. بسیاری از کشورها جمعیت روبه افزایش دارند و با کمبود جدی آب مواجه هستند و تأمین و توزیع آب متناسب با تقاضای آن‌ها نیست. احداث سدها از راهکارهای اساسی جهت مدیریت چالش کمبود آب در دهه‌های اخیر است، اما این راهبرد می‌تواند پیامدهای منفی اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی به همراه داشته باشد. هدف این مقاله بررسی دیدگاه خانوارهای محلی پیرامون پیامدهای احتمالی حاصل از احداث سد بهشت‌آباد بر راهبردهای معیشت کشاورزی و غیرکشاورزی آن‌هاست. این پژوهش پیمایشی در جوامع روستایی و شهری واقع در حوزه مبدا و محل احداث سد، یعنی حوزه آبخیز بهشت‌آباد در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری صورت گرفت. در این مطالعه با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری چند مرحله‌ای 200 خانوار از 3514 خانوار منطقه انتخاب شدند و داده‌ها با استفاده از پرسش‌نامه و مصاحبه ساختاریافته گردآوری گردیدند. از دید جوامع محلی احداث سد بهشت‌آباد باعث تخریب دارایی‌های فیزیکی کشاورزی و غیرکشاورزی و افزایش آسیب‌پذیری معیشت آن‌ها خواهد شد که این امر خود سبب افزایش مهاجرت، تغییر فرهنگ محلی، روی آوردن خانوارها به مشاغل کاذب و فروپاشی خانوارها بر اثر مهاجرت اجباری محلی خواهد شد. این دیدگاه به طور معنی‌داری تحت تأثیر داشتن شغل کشاورزی و خدماتی خانوار، میزان اراضی خانوار، تعداد دام سبک و سنگین، سن و میزان تحصیلات بود. این پژوهش نشان داد از دید جوامع محلی و شهری در صورت احداث سد دارایی‌های فیزیکی کشاورزی و غیرکشاورزی آسیب دیده و مشاغل مربوط به آن‌ها از بین خواهد رفت، هرچند ممکن است برخی مشاغل وابسته به صنعت و خدمات نیز به وجود آید؛ بنابراین قبل از احداث سد، سیاست‌گذاران و برنامه‌ریزان باید امکان‌سنجی و تأمل بیشتری صورت گیرد تا پیامدهای ناگواری پس از آن به وجود نیاید.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14603_aaa80e84ff3e484a3983d1678cec094f.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 23 1 2019 05 22 Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Defense Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (Case Study: The Second City Area of Shiraz) تحلیل آسیب‌پذیری پدافندی مناطق شهر با استفاده از فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (مطالعه موردی: منطقه 2 شیـراز) 52 84 14604 FA خلیل حاجی پور عضو هئیت علمی دانشگاه شیراز آرمـیـن پَــــیـاب برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شیراز Journal Article Abstract One of the most important goals of urbanization is providing safety and security for its inhabitants. So, the safety of the city to protect citizens as well as public and private property against natural and abnormal disasters by adopting new methods, is necessary at all levels. Cities as gathering centers of physical and human capitals are often the target of enemies. Due to the presence of vital land uses in the city, each region is important hence, the planning to reduce damages, create safety and related sustainability there, is one of the most important actions. Accordingly, passive defense is important in policy making as well. In many cases, converting the crisis of war and disasters into tragedy is the inefficiency of urbanism condition from the defensive point of view. Therefore, it is essential to assess the vulnerability and create appropriate solutions to reduce such damages. The case study, here, is the second municipal area of Shiraz, which in this research is divided into zones, after studying 14 effective indexes of urban texture’s vulnerability. Using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system (GIS), the vulnerability level of the second city area has been determined as: low, medium and high. The research findings show that 7.2%, 43.7% and 49.08% of the second area were in low, medium and high risk zones, respectively. Areas 6 and 13 in low risk zones, Areas 1, 4, 5, 7, 10 and 12 in the middle zone, as well as Areas 2, 3, 8, 9, 11 and 14, are in high risk zone. Priorities of planning and the crisis management are provided taking into account the structural consideration of the city and its level of vulnerability. یکی از اهداف مهم شهرسازی تأمین ایمنی و امنیت ساکنان شهر است. ایمنی‌بخشی به شهر جهت حفاظت از شهروندان و دارایی همگانی و خصوصی در برابر بلایای طبیعی و غیرطبیعی با اتخاذ روش‌های نوین ضرورتی است که در همه سطوح مطرح است. بـا توجـه به قرارداشـتن کاربری‌هـای حیاتـی، هر یک از مناطق شهر از اهمیــت بســیاری برخــوردار است؛ بنابراین برنامه‌ریـزی جهـت کاهـش خسـارات ایجـاد ایمنی و پایـداری نســبی شــهرها از اقدامـات مهم برنامه‌ریـزی‌شـهری است. بر همین اساس پدافند غیرعامل از اهمیت ویژه‌ای در سیاست‌گذاری‌ها برخوردار است؛آن‌چه بحران جنگ و بلایا را در شهرها به یک فاجعه تبدیل می‌کند در بسیاری از موارد ناکارآمدی وضعیت شهرسازی از منظر ملاحظات پدافندی است؛ بنابراین ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری و تدوین راهکارهای مناسب جهت کاهش خسارات ضروری است. مورد پژوهشی مطالعه حاضر منطقه 2 از مناطق 10‌گانه شهرداری شیراز است. در این پژوهش منطقه دو به منطقه‌هایی تقسیم‌بندی شده و با بررسی 14 شاخص موثر در میزان آسیب‌پذیری بافت شهرها با استفاده از تکنیک فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی میزان آسیب‌پذیری نواحی منطقه 2 در سه دسته‌بندی کم،متوسط و زیاد تعیین گردیده است. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که 7.2% و 43.7% و 49.08% از منطقه 2 به ترتیب در پهنه‌های خطر کم، متوسط و زیاد که نواحی 6 و 13 در پهنه خطر کم، نواحی 1، 4، 5، 7، 10 و 12 در پهنه متوسط و همچنین نواحی 2، 3، 8، 9، 11 و 14 در پهنه خطر زیاد قرار دارند و بر همین مبنا اولویت‌های برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت بحران براساس ملاحظات ساختاری شهر و میزان آسیب‌پذیری مناطق ارائه شده است. کلیدواژگان: آسیـب‌پذیری، پـدافند غیـرعامل، منـاطق شـهر، فـرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی، شـهر شیراز.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14604_f2b41808a36363e7279128bf0b6104f1.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 23 1 2019 05 22 An analysis of the process of producing the state capitalist space in Iran, Case Study: Tehran City تحلیلی بر فرایند تولید فضای سرمایه‌داری دولتی در ایران مورد: شهر تهران 85 116 14605 FA ایوب منوچهری میاندوآب استادیار دانشگاه ارومیه محمد تقی رهنمایی دانشگاه تهران Journal Article introduction The space and how it can be organized and evolved in time and place can be the most fundamental issue and focal point for all topics and schools of geography, urban planning and urban design. Therefore, the organization of human settlements, activity centers at ground level with certain possibilities and limitations and the regulation of the interactive relationships between these elements in order to achieve an effective community can be considered as an ancient aspiration for spatial planning . Organizing and producing space in the form of a state begins since the Constitutional Revolution with the advent of a modern state in Iran, In fact, the modern state is trying to change the nature of space from consumption to exchanging mod for controlling and managing the space. the tool of this changing is city. In this way, the modern state (emerging from the heart of the city) seeks to change the nature of space through urbanization of space. The modern state has consistently embraced in strengthening and development of cities and urbanization with its city-centered and orbital city policies and in return, it paid less attention to the lives and livelihoods of rural and nomadic communities. In this research, the process of changing the nature of space in Iran from consumption to exchanging and commodity mod and the influential elements in this change will be discussed. To clarify the issue, Tehran city will be considered as the capital of the modern state and the most important place in space changing during the last century in order to examine the changing of the nature of space in the last 100 years in Iran. Methodology The present study aims to study and analyze the process of formation of the production of capitalist space in contemporary Iran, especially during the period of the emergence of the modern state with the Constitutional Revolution. For this purpose, the method is descriptive-analytical study. The documentary (library) method has been used for data collection, The research approach was based on the study of the process of formation of the state capitalist space in Iran based on the city of Tehran in six areas in five periods of Qajar, Constitutional Revolution, the First Pahlavi, Pillar, Second Pahlavi, and the Islamic Republic. These areas include social structure, political economy, spatial system of the country, Tehran's place and role in the spatial structure of the country, spatial and physical changes of Tehran city which has been studied in five stages in order to analyze the process of production of state capitalist space. Results and discussion Space is a product of society and social production and every. Each production mode produces its own space according to its political and ideological characteristics. In the process of space production, three dimensions of space (spatial practice, representation of space and representational space) are involved, the balance of these three dimensions of space makes space equilibrium. The process of production of space in Iran before the Constitutional Revolution was in equilibrium and all the stakeholders in space were involved in its production. And also the nature of the space was concrete and for consumption, but after the advent of the modern state in Iran, the government not only influenced urbanization processes but also began to create new space by changing production methods,overnment intervention in space created an imbalance in space; in fact, the government began to represent space without regard for other stakeholders. The result of government intervention was to overcome the balance of space and the change in the nature of space, Over time, other actors (city planners, municipality, capital, and local communities) have been influenced in new space production. In fact, the state provided the necessary base for the new elements, but over the time, the role of the state in space was reduced and the role of capital increased, the purpose of capital in the new space was to generate more profits, thus, with a strong central focus, it reduced space barriers to accumulate profits. This created an uneven geography of urban development that the spatial structure of the city and the space organization, went to an unbalanced line Which resulted in the disintegration of space, Also, by changing the nature of space from Consumption space to exchange space Converted space into goods and this has caused the loss of sense of space in space, these are the desirable spaces which have exchange and sale value. As a result of such a process, space has become abstracted and its users have no role on it. Conclusion In Iran, after the Constitutional Revolution, the state not only affect the urbanization process. And changes the process of urbanization by using the mechanism of changing the mode of production from the capitalist mode to the state capitalist mode but also changes the nature of space (urban space) as urbanization expands. This means that the nature of urban space is also beginning to change and the government creates new space that the nature of the space consumption is dimmed. And the exchange space is replaced by it. in this process, new actors are formed through the government that each of them help the process in some way, The city of Tehran as the capital of the country was the first place where these changes took place and the process of changing the nature of city space over a century has been giving to the state and its related elements that the city has changed a lot to accumulate capital and accelerate the process of production, distribution and consumption during this period. And changed from a "city-life" to a "city-capital" and eventually to a "city-commodity". And it has been the result of a hundred years of state effort in space production, The state has taken control of space with great influence on the representation of space (imagined space) and abstract planning of the city and with the process of changing the everyday life has also been affected the living and perceived space. فضا به یکی از مؤلفه‌های اساسی در تحلیل‌های شهری تبدیل شده است، در واقع شهرها مهم‌ترین ابزار تولید فضا به ویژه فضای سرمایه‌داری یا چرخه دوم انباشت سرمایه هستند. هدف این پژوهش تحلیل فرآیند تولید فضا در ایران معاصر است. شهر تهران به عنوان پایتخت ایران در دو سده اخیر مورد مطالعه انتخاب شده است. در راستای رسیدن به هدف پژوهش ساختار اجتماعی، اقتصادی سیاسی، سازمان فضایی کشور، نقش شهر تهران در سازمان فضایی و تغییرات فضایی و کالبدی شهر تهران مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته است. روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی و ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها اسنادی بوده است. آن‌چه که از این پژوهش می‌توان نتیجه گرفت این است که بعد انقلاب مشروطیت دولت نه تنها در فرایند شهرنشینی تأثیر گذار می‌شود و روند شهرنشینی را با استفاده از مکانیزم تغییر شیوه تولید از شیوه سرمایه‌داری بهره‌بری به شیوه دولتی تغییر می‌دهد، بلکه هم‌زمان به گسترش شهرنشینی ماهیت فضارا تغییر می‌دهد، دولت شروع به تولید فضای جدید اقدام می‌کند که ماهیت مصرفی فضا کمرنگ‌تر شده است و فضای مبادله‌ای جایگزین آن می‌شود. شهر تهران برای انباشت سرمایه و تسریع فرایند تولید، توزیع و مصرف در این مدت تغییراتی زیاد کرده است و از یک شهر- زندگی به یک شهر- سرمایه و در نهایت به شهر-کالا تبدیل شده و نتیجه صد سال تلاش دولت در تولید فضا بوده است، دولت با تأثیرگذاری زیاد در بعد بازنمایی فضا (فضای تصور شده) و برنامه‌ریزی انتزاعی شهر کنترل فضا را در اختیار گرفته و با فرایند تغییر زندگی روزمره فضای زیسته و درک شده را نیز تحت تأثیر گذاشته است.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14605_ab11f404829e4df8aa00c84437b20f0b.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 23 1 2019 05 22 Fusion of socio-economic and remote sensing-based attributes for Karaj physical growth modeling ادغام خصیصه‌های اجتماعی- اقتصادی و سنجش ازدوری به منظور مدل‌سازی رشد فیزیکی شهر کرج 119 150 14606 FA شهربانو اسماعیلی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد سنجش ازدور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشگاه ازاد علوم و تحقیقات تهران علی شمس الدینی* هیات علمی گروه سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس 0000-0002-4559-7563 Journal Article Urban physical growth is affected by different parameters including environmental, neighborhood and socio-economic factors; however, socio-economic variables are often ignored due to the lack of socio-economic information, especially in developing countries, when the urban physical growth analysis and modeling is the aim. Accordingly, there is not many studies conducted to develop GIS-based socio-economic layers to be used along with common data, such as slope, distance to the roads and so on, in urban physical growth modeling. Therefore, this study aims to introduce an efficient method to generate GIS-based socio-economic layers to be exploited along with the information layers extracted from Landsat images and field-collected data for physical growth modeling of Karaj city. After generating the required information layers, random forest feature selection method was applied to select the most important variables. Then, the performance of the three modeling methods including multiple logistic regression, and two artificial neural networks, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and self-organizing map (SOM) were compared using the selected attributes to model the urban physical growth from 2000 to 2010. The results indicated that SOM with overall accuracy of 84.5%, kappa coefficient of 68.9%, ROC of 90.7%, FOM of 43.98% and PCM of 84.5% performed better than the other methods for modelling of urban physical growth. Moreover, the proposed socio-economic attributes combined with the remote sensing-based data were able to improve the performance of the urban physical growth prediction. Finally, cellular automata was applied to predict the Karaj physical growth in 2017 and 2027. در تجزیه و تحلیل و مدل‌سازی رشد فیزیکی شهر معمولاً عوامل اقتصادی- اجتماعی به دلیل عدم دسترسی به این داده‌ها نادیده گرفته می‌شوند. به همین دلیل در مدل‌سازی رشد فیزیکی شهرها تاکنون بر ایجاد لایه‌های اطلاعاتی از این نوع داده‌ها کمتر کار شده است. این مطالعه با هدف معرفی روشی کارا به منظور ایجاد لایه‌های اطلاعاتی برای داده‌های اقتصادی- اجتماعی و استفاده از این لایه‌های اطلاعاتی در کنار لایه‌های اطلاعاتی مستخرج از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای لندست و اطلاعات پیمایش زمینی به منظور مدل‌سازی رشد فیزیکی شهر کرج انجام شد. بدین منظور پس از ایجاد لایه‌های اطلاعاتی مختلف با اهمیت‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر در رشد شهری با روش انتخاب ویژگی جنگل تصادفی تعیین گردید و سپس مدل‌سازی رشد فیزیکی شهر کرج برای سال‌های 2000 تا 2010 با استفاده از روش‌های رگرسیون لجستیک چند متغیره، پرسپترون چندلایه و روش نقشه خود سازمان‌دهنده انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که استفاده از با اهمیت‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر به عنوان ورودی در روش نقشه خود سازمان‌دهنده با دقت کلی 84.47، کاپا 68.93، ROC برابر با 90.72، FOM برابر با 43.98 و PCM برابر با 84.47 از عملکرد بهتری برخوردار بود، همچنین استفاده از خصیصه‌های اجتماعی- اقتصادی پیشنهاد شده در این تحقیق در کنار داده‌های سنجش ازدور می‌تواند به ارتقا عملکرد روش پیش‌بینی کننده کمک نماید. سرانجام با استفاده از سلول‌های خودکار پیش‌بینی رشد فیزیکی شهر در سال‌های 2017 و 2027 انجام گردید.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14606_2f803d26ce47b9f9de9af69e5b73e3d1.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 23 1 2019 05 22 Effect of Empowerment on Residents Support for Tourism the Case of Kamardough Tourism Region تأثیر توانمندسازی بر حمایت ساکنان از توسعه گردشگری منطقه گردشگری کمردوغ 151 168 14607 FA مهدی شکوهی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان مسعود یزدان پناه هیات علمی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان Journal Article Abstract Introduction: resident’s empowerment in a tourism region is essential to ensure the success and development of sustainable tourism. Empowerment can affect people's attitudes toward the positive and negative impacts of tourism. In addition, studies suggest that residents are more willing to support tourism development if its impacts are perceived to carry greater benefits than costs. Hence, empowerment is expected to be able to support the development of tourism. this study aims to investigate if empowerment could affect their attitudes toward tourism impacts and support of tourism development. Methodology: This study is an applied research and with the survey method was conducted. The study population consisted of residents of Kamardough tourism region. The sample size was determined using the Morgan table (n=220). Using a random sampling method, 220 students were selected for this study. The face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts. Cronbach alpha reliability coefficients were calculated for the pilot study and used to refine the questions for the final questionnaire. All scales indicated good-to-excellent reliabilit generally 0.71–0.91. Results and discussion: Regression showed that Personal economic benefit and three empowerment dimensions (psychological, social and political) had direct and significant relationships with resident perceptions of tourism’s positive impacts. These variables predicted 51% of the variance in attitude toward positive impacts. Personal economic benefit and political empowerment have significant effect on attitude toward negative impacts of tourism. There is a negative relationship between political empowerment and perceived negative impacts from tourism. These variables predicted only 0/28 of the attitudes toward negative impacts. the Regression showed that psychological empowerment, social empowerment and political empowerment and attitudes toward positive impacts of tourism affect residents’ support for tourism. These variables predicted 47% of the variance in support. Conclusion: These findings also have practical implications for those within the tourism industry looking for strategies to increase their residents’ support for and attitudes toward tourism development. توانمندسازی ساکنان مناطق گردشگری برای تضمین موفقیت و توسعه گردشگری پایدار الزامی است. توانمندسازی می‌تواند نگرش افراد را نسبت به اثرات مثبت و منفی گردشگری تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. به علاوه تحقیقات نشان می‌دهد که افراد در صورتی از توسعه گردشگری حمایت می‌کنند که نگرش آن‌ها نسبت به منافع و اثرات مثبت گردشگری بیشتر از هزینه‌ها و اثرات منفی آن باشد. از این‌رو انتظار می‌رود توانمندسازی بتواند حمایت از توسعه گردشگری را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد؛ بنابراین هدف این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر ابعاد توانمندسازی بر نگرش ساکنان منطقه گردشگری کمردوغ در استان کهکیلویه و بویراحمد نسبت به اثرات گردشگری و حمایت از توسعه است. جمعیت مورد مطالعه شامل ساکنان منطقه گردشگری کمردوغ بودند که نمونه تحقیق با استفاده از جدول مورگان (220=n) تعیین شد و با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی انتخاب شدند. جهت تأیید روایی پرسش‌نامه از اعضای هیأت علمی و برای بررسی پایایی آن از ضریب آلفا کرونباخ (91/0- 71/0) استفاده شد. برای بررسی تأثیر ابعاد توانمندسازی بر نگرش ساکنان منطقه از رگرسیون خطی استفاده شد. نتایج مطالعه حاضر نشان داد سود اقتصادی شخصی و سه بعد دیگر توانمندسازی (اجتماعی، روانی و محیطی) توانسته‌اند متغیر نگرش نسبت به تأثیرات مثبت گردشگری را تحت تأثیر قرار دهند. این متغیرها میزان قابل توجهی (51 درصد) از واریانس نگرش نسبت به اثرات مثبت را پیش‌بینی کرده‌اند. همچنین نتایج نشان داد سود اقتصادی شخصی و توانمندسازی سیاسی دو عامل مؤثر بر نگرش افراد به اثرات منفی گردشگری بوده‌اند. این متغیرها 28 درصد از واریانس نگرش نسبت به اثرات منفی را پیش‌بینی کرده‌اند. همچنین نتایج تحقیق در مورد عوامل مؤثر بر حمایت از توسعه گردشگری نشان داد اثرات مثبت گردشگری و همچنین توانمندسازی‌های روانی، اجتماعی و سیاسی تأثیر قابل توجهی بر حمایت ساکنان از توسعه گردشگری داشته‌اند. این متغیرها مجموع 47 درصد از واریانس حمایت از توسعه گردشگری را برآورد کرده‌اند.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14607_598dc7d51e0cd7774c3484067198da82.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 23 1 2019 05 22 Urban settlement planning with baseline scenario approach (case study: West Azarbaijan) برنامه‌ریزی نظام سکونت‌گاهی شهری با رویکرد سناریو مبنا (مطالعه موردی: استان آذربایجان غربی) 169 199 14608 FA احمد آفتاب مدرس دانشگاه ارومیه 0000-0001-7451-7473 علی اکبر تقیلو دانشیار دانشگاه ارومیه اکبر هوشمند دانش آموخته دانشگاه ارومیه Journal Article Extended Abstract: Introduction The spatial structure of the urban settlement system in a geographical domain requires a good foundation to achieve maximum productivity. By this way, the aim of the current research is to study the urban settlement planning of West Azerbaijan which is highly uncertain due to its geographical location, ethnic diversity and environmental issues. Economic freedom in the Maku Free Zone, the expansion of markets at 7 border areas of the province, the development of the Miandoab-Tehran communication network, the creation of a railway roundabout, the economic development of the Baneh region, policies to deal with ever decreasing agricultural activities due to the water and environmental crisis, making decisions on creating special economic areas in Mahabad, Urmia, Salmas and Miandoab ...are regional and local trends that have caused uncertainty in the settlement pattern of the province and the human space flow, goods and services. In a nutshell, the study aims to identify settlement scenarios of the province and the framework for the deployment of services, infrastructures and flow of capital, goods and humans in the region for spatial planning. Methodology This is a type of applied research and, in essence, based on new scientific, analytical and investigative methods. The statistical population of the study is 30 professors, experts and specialists in the field of spatial planning. The data gathering method was used to examine the effective factors on the urban settlements system of the province, both in documentary (secondary data) and survey (primary data), for which questionnaire and interviews were used as a survey method. To analyze the data, a combination of Delphi methods, Cross-impact analysis, and Mick-Mac software were used. Results and Discussion 45 variables were found to be the main and strategic ones affecting the planning of the urban settlement system of West Azerbaijan province that were analyzed via Mick-Mc software.Finally, 11 effective factors were identified with 33 statuses. Accordingly, the midway and the pessimistic assumptions in the best possible range were defined to be the worse. Given theoretical foundations of the proposed study, the spatial scenarios of the province in terms its geographic extent and severity, multiplicity of cities, location and regional potentials can be summarized as follows: First Scenario (Polar Scenario): By choosing this scenario, the future settlement system of the province will have following outcomes: - Deletion permissions to settlement perimeter will be too low due to high concentration and security reasons and high ethnic diversity in the province as well as its inappropriate form and shape. - The polar scenario is an illustration of highly-concentrated settlement system in which responsibility for decisions, policies, management and their implementation will be simultaneously focused on the city of Urumia. - Urumia is practically the center of commodity exchanges at the provincial level and will be a key link for each settlement in the city. Second Scenario (Cluster Scenario): The obvious features of this scenario are as follows: - Although the centralization dominates the province, by coordinating and collaborating widely between settlements, reduces the focus on the province's space relative to the radical scenario. One of the main reasons for this decrease is the existence of large urban centers such as Khoy in the north, Urumia in the center, Miandoab in the south; - In this scenario, a number of larger settlements compete with the center of Urumia, and play a central role for its surroundings. - The headquarters of each cluster manages its communication. Third Scenario (Archipelago Scenario): In general, the typical features of this scenario in West Azerbaijan province are as follows: - The lack of extensive cooperation between settlements, spatial dispersion of housing, as well as the developmental equality of settlements causing communications flows mainly carried out within limited areas (cities and regions). - The scenario of the archipelago is an image of the West Azerbaijan province as an island facing local markets and urban areas Fourth Scenario (Multi-center): The typical features of this scenario are as follows: - In a multi-centered scenario, focusing on the province's space is due to the development of some settlements and the wide-ranging collaboration between them. However, due to inappropriate form and body and some restrictions in different areas, there is a relative dependence on clusters. - In this scenario, the urban complexes of the province have changed from one central space to a multicentre urban complex. Due to high convergence between central settlements and their interaction with each other, macro policies are taken collaboratively by central settlements of main areas. Fifth Scenario (Network): The typical features of this scenario are as follows: - This scenario presents a picture of a networked city complex (both in urban and rural settlement). - Each settlement itself manages its connections with other settlements. - In this scenario, no settlement is dependent on other settlements. Conclusion Considering the current status of central and star structure of the urban system of West Azerbaijan province, the multi-centered urban network is suitable especially due to potentially powerful cities of Khoy, Mako, Miandoab and Mahabad, the northern- southern stretch of the province, geopolitical location after realizing the multi-centered model and providing an appropriate infrastructure and substrate. The transition from the multicenter model to the network will be provided. To reach the multi-centered urban network, which is the scenario of choice for the provincial urban system, the cluster and hierarchical stage of the city's network must be reached in early phases of the province's development. Once an appropriate infrastructure and substrate is provided, the multi-center urban scenario will be realized. ساختار فضایی نظام سکونت‌گاه‌های شهری در فضای جغرافیایی نیازمند بسترسازی مطلوب جهت دست‌یابی به حد بیشینه بهره‌وری است. در این راستا هدف پژوهش حاضر برنامه‌ریزی نظام سکونت‌گاهی شهری استان آذربایجان غربی با تأکید رویکرد سناریونویسی است. نوع تحقیق کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت براساس روش‌های جدید علم آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق 30 نفر از استادان، متخصصان و کارشناسان در حوزه آمایش سرزمین است. روش گردآوری داده‌ها برای بررسی مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر نظام سکونت‌گاه‌های شهری استان به دو صورت اسنادی (داده‌های ثانویه) و پیمایشی (داده‌های اولیه) و ابزار مورد استفاده در روش پیمایشی پرسش‌نامه و مصاحبه بوده است. برای تجزیه ‌و تحلیل داده‌ها ترکیبی از روش‌های ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ[1] و نرم‌افزار میک مک[2] استفاده شده است. براساس نتایج، 11 عامل «شبکه حمل‌ و نقل»، «سلسله‌مراتب مکان‌های مرکزی»، «ارزیابی نظام تصمیم‌گیری و مدیریت»، «تهدیدات نظامی و امنیتی»، «پیوندهای مالی»، «فعالیت‌های اقتصادی برحسب بخش‌های اصلی»، «اقتصاد کلان استان»، «تحولات جمعیت»، «منابع آب»، «تهدیدات اجتماعی- فرهنگی– سیاسی» و «شبکه ارتباطات» با توجه به این‌که بیشترین مقدار تأثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم به‌ عنوان عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر سناریوهای آینده استان شناسایی شدند. با توجه به یافته‌های تحقیق بین سناریوهای طراحی شده برای آرایش نظام فضایی سکونت‌گاه‌های شهری آذربایجان غربی، با انتخاب «سناریوی چندمرکزی» شاهد انسجام فضایی- عملکردی در سطح منطقه و توسعه یکپارچه و متعادل فضایی خواهیم بود.

https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14608_e17d492251eabe7ede3c705c4cc11513.pdf