دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش فضا و ژئوماتیک 1605-9689 24 3 2020 09 22 The Impact of Currency value Changes on Spatial Developments of Tehran تاثیر تغییرات نرخ ارز بر تحولات فضائی شهر تهران 139 168 14672 FA وحید مشفقی مربی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران- سمیرا یوسفیان دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی ،دانشگاه تربیت مدرس ،تهران ، ایران Journal Article <strong>-Introduction</strong><strong>:</strong> Cites are affected by different forces. <strong>Changing</strong> <strong>Changes</strong> in the structure of the economy has caused different reactions from different groups of government, markets and people<strong>,</strong> that can be traced by its appearance in the city. One of the aspects of the impact of the economy on the city is physical interventions and urban construction<strong>,</strong> such as urban land use <strong>Changes</strong> <strong>changes</strong>, space utilization intensity, building congestion, <strong>and</strong> urban boundaries change. This study aims to explain the effect of economy on physical changes of the city. The researchers seeks the trace of capital flow in the city. The Research questions are as follows: 1- How <strong>is</strong> Tehran's exchange rate and construction <strong>are</strong> related? 2. What is the nature and orientation of capital flow in the city? 3- How is the relationship between land price and physical interventions in 22 district of Tehran?<br> <strong>-Methodology</strong>: This is <strong>an</strong> applied research and <strong>is</strong> <strong>one of</strong> <strong>among</strong> the causal and relational studies. The documentary and library-based methods <strong>is</strong> <strong>are</strong> used to collect and interpret data. First, the relationship between the exchange rate and the tendency to build in the city is examined using the index of building permits. In the second step, the level of intervention in the city is examined. In the third step, the district and regional effects of land price on the number of building permits were investigated through the spatial correlation between land price and building permits.<br> The study area is 22 districts of Tehran. Tehran is the largest city and capital of Iran that has experienced rapid growth over the years. The area of Tehran has increased from 370 <strong>km 2</strong> <span>:</span> <span><strong><span>ا</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ن</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> پژوهش تلاش </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>می</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌کند</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> تا </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>تأث</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ر</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> تغ</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>یی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>رات</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> نرخ ارز بر تحولات کالبد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> شهر تهران در دو </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>بازه </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>باز</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ۀ</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>زمان</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> قبل و بعد از افزا</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ش</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> شد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>د</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> ق</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>مت</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> ارز در سال 1391 بررس</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> شود. پژوهش حاضر با رو</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>کرد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> کاربرد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> و با روش</span></strong></span><span><strong><span dir="LTR"><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>شناس</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> عل</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ّ</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>-</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ـ</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>رابطه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌ای </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>با هدف تبیین چگونگی تأث</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>رگذار</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> نیروهای اقتصاد بر تغییرات کالبدی شهر و رد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>اب</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> جریان سرمایه در شهر تهران انجام شده است. پژوهش </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>در </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>در</span></strong></span><span><strong><span dir="LTR"><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>پی </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>یافتن پاسخ</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>به چگونگی ارتباط نرخ ارز و ساخت</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌وسازها</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> شهر تهران</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>؛ </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>،</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>جریان سرما</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>یه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> در شهر</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>؛ </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>،</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>چگونگی ارتباط میان قیمت زمین و مداخلات کالبدی در مناطق 22گانه شهر تهران است. شیوه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌های مورد استفاده برای گردآوری داده</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌ه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ا </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>به </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>به</span></strong></span><span><strong><span dir="LTR"><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>صورت اسنادی و </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>داده</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌ها</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>تحق</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ق</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>شامل</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> ق</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>مت</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> دلار، تعداد پروانه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌های </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ساختمان</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> صادر شده و ق</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>مت</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> زم</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ن</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>به</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> تفک</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ک</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> مناطق 22گانه شهر تهران برا</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> سال</span></strong></span><span><strong><span dir="LTR"><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ها</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> 1385</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>-</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ـ</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>1396</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> می</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>باشد. </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>نتایج</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>پ</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ژ</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>وهش</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>نشان</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>م</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌دهد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>،</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> جریان سرمایه در شهر و شیوه و شدت مداخله در شهرها </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>با</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> ق</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>مت</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> ارز در ارتباط است. </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>تعداد پروانه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌های ساختمانی شهر تهران </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>قبل و بعد از جهش 216 درصدی نرخ ارز در سال 1391، تغییرات معناداری داشته است. ب</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ا</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>مقایسه </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>مقایس</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ۀ</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>میانگین </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>سالانه </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>سالان</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ۀ</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>پروانه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌های صادر شده مشخص می</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌شود که شدت سا</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>خت</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌وساز در شهر با جهش قیمت دلار</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>، کاهش </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>افته</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> است. از سو</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> د</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>گر</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>،</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> تفاوت معناداری میان مناطق 22گانه شهرداری تهران </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>از </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>از</span></strong></span><span><strong><span dir="LTR"><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>نظر تعداد پروانه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌های ساختمانی و قیمت زمین است. </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>در </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>در</span></strong></span><span><strong><span dir="LTR"><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>واقع نتا</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ج</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> پژوه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ش</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>به </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>به</span></strong></span><span><strong><span dir="LTR"><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>واسط</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ۀ</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> رد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>اب</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> جریان سرما</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> در شهر تهران نشان</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>م</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌دهد</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> که با افزا</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ش</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> نرخ ارز</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>،</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> جر</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ان</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> سرما</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ه</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> در مناطق شمال</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>ی</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> شهر تهران</span></strong></span> <span><strong><span>(مناطق 1، 2، </span></strong></span><span><strong><span>3، 4 و 6) متمرکز</span></strong></span><span><strong><span> می</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>‌</span></strong></span><span><strong><span>شود.</span></strong></span><span><strong></strong></span><br> <span>واژگان</span> <span>کل</span><span>ی</span><span>د</span><span>ی</span><span>:</span> <span>قدرت،</span> <span>جر</span><span>ی</span><span>ان</span> <span>سرما</span><span>ی</span><span>ه</span><span>،</span> <span>مداخلات</span> <span>کالبد</span><span>ی</span><span>،</span> <span>ساختار</span> <span>‌فضا</span><span>یی</span><span>،</span> <span>تهران</span><span>.</span> https://hsmsp.modares.ac.ir/article_14672_eb844cbe61ad95e6462ee45f7c3d87ae.pdf